ARGUMENT147【Aero小组】第12次作业 by liruixinsnake

liruixinsnakeUID: 2373729

题目：ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
字数：367          用时：00:30:00          日期：2008-2-12 12:32:00

In this argument, citing the result of a survey that many players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics; and the fact that Whirlwind(W) has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at 10 to 25 years old, the author reaches the conclusion that the sales of W video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. While it seems somewhat convincing, a careful examination of the analysis reveals that it suffers from three critical flaws.

Firstly, the most important assumption in this analysis is that the survey can thoroughly represent the most video game players' interests. However, there is no statistical facts of how the survey be conducted. For instance, we do not know in which age-level the respondents are and whether there will be any different interests between the different ages of people. Lacking these important statistics, we can not conclude what the author claims.

Secondly, even assuming the survey is a representative one----most of the video game players prefer the lifelike graphics games. However, can they afford to buy the most up-to-date computers on which those video games can only be motivated?  Without ruling out this question, we cannot believe that W video game will be welcomed.

Thirdly, whether the extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old is a good support to the author's conclusion is open to doubt. Because it is entirely possible that the player who loves the lifelike games may be the elder player who has much experience of life and therefore want a game to review such memory. Thus, this possibility also can suspect the author's assertion.

What’s more, the author neglects many other factors which will influence the video games such as the wonderful background music and the fascinating stories about the games. Maybe these are the vital factors to benefit the video game publisher.

In sum, this argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis cannot lend strong support to what the author assert. Unless the author can provide more statistics of the survey and more facts that 10 to 25 years old players prefer the lifelike graphic games, the author's concerning about these issues is grounded.

dahuadebaobaoUID: 2441571

In this argument, citing the result of a survey that many players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics; and the fact that Whirlwind(W) has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at 10 to 25 years old, the author reaches the conclusion that the sales of W video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. While it seems somewhat convincing, a careful examination of the analysis reveals that it suffers from three critical flaws. Firstly, the most important assumption in this analysis is that the survey can thoroughly represent the most video game players' interests. However, there is no statistical facts of how the survey be conducted. For instance, we do not know in which age-level the respondents are and whether there will be any different interests between the different ages of people. Lacking these important statistics, we can not conclude what the author claims.(这里还可以再深入一点，不仅是年龄问题，还有性别－女孩可能没有男孩喜欢游戏，人数，两个比例－参与调查者占总人数的比例以及回应者占调查者的比例)Secondly, even assuming the survey is a representative one----most of the video game players prefer the lifelike graphics games. However, can they afford to buy the most up-to-date computers on which those video games can only be motivated?  Without ruling out this question, we cannot believe that W video game will be welcomed.（这里还可以再来一个让步，就算买不起，爸妈可以给买嘛，但是爸妈怕他们玩物丧志，所以不愿意给买，所以还是。。。）Thirdly, whether the extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old is a good support to the author's conclusion is open to doubt. Because it is entirely possible that the player who loves the lifelike games may be the elder player who has much experience of life and therefore want a game to review such memory. Thus, this possibility also can suspect the author's assertion.What’s more （What is more）, the author neglects many other factors which will influence the video games such as the wonderful background music and the fascinating stories about the games. Maybe these are the vital factors to benefit the video game publisher.In sum, this argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis cannot lend strong support to what the author assert. Unless the author can provide more statistics of the survey and more facts that 10 to 25 years old players prefer the lifelike graphic games, the author's concerning about these issues is grounded. (ungrounded)

感觉作者语言挺好，应该是练了有些时间了，学习！！