argument147 【Chasing For "6" Score】第二次作业

hbezllsUID: 2392974

1.       Survey的模糊
2.       广告推广活动不一定取得成效
3.       高品质的游戏不一定能使W的销量上升，可能是别的原因导致销量下降。


TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 513          TIME: 1:00:51          DATE: 2008-3-6

In this argument, the author intends to prove that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To substantiate this analysis, the author cites a survey about most interesting feature of the video game to players, and provides a advertising campaign. The prediction seems somewhat convincing at the first glance; however, further scrutiny reveals that the argument suffers several flaws.
First of all, the author offers a survey to substantiate his assumption that games providing lifelike graphics are popular in all players. However, the author fails to indicate how many player asked about the feature problem and where did the survey be executed. Perhaps the survey asked a few of video-game players in a small town which could not reflect the average level of the whole video players. The author must show that the survey constitutes a sufficiently large sample of the players, and that this sample is representative of such people. Without providing a proper sample, the author cannot confidently draw any general conclusion about the interest of players.
Even if the survey is statistically reliable, the author cannot draw the conclusion too hastily that the advertising campaign will achieve its goal. First, the campaign is directed at people 10 to 25 years old who are most likely to play video games the author asserts. But the author offers no evidence to substantiate this assert. Perhaps, people 10 to 25 years old have not enough time to play video games because of studying at school or working at company. Moreover, even if people 10 to 25 is the majority of people playing video games, it is entirely possible that the majority of people who purchase the video-game product are their parents rather than themselves, and their parents cannot understand the meaning of the advertisement and the campaign has no significant effect. So the arguer must provide enough evidence to rule out all the above-mentioned possibilities which might weaken the argument.
Even if the author can substantiate the forgoing assumptions, the author predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically and reverse the trend that sales have declined over the past two years on the assumption that the quality of games is the cause of the trend. However, the author provides no reason to prove it. Common sense dictates that the game is popular when it is easy to begin. Maybe the video games of Whirlwind need a lot of expensive hardwares, which most players cannot afford the expense on it which is the real cause of the trend. Without taking into account all the other possible explanation, the arguer cannot reasonably conclude that the game quality is responsible for the sale decrease.
In conclusion, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should have to prove that the game quality is responsible for the sale decrease and that advertising campaign will succeed if future. Moreover, the arguer must provide enough evidence to rule out all the above alternatives which might weaken the argument.

[ 本帖最后由 hbezlls 于 2008-3-6 21:33 编辑 ]

ncnysUID: 2347325

每一段的段首可以加上主题句哈..这样会使结构更一目了然...有个别句子比较长哈..可以分成两个分句..感觉整体不错!加油!

scentyUID: 2363244

In this argument, the author intends to prove that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To substantiate this analysis, the author cites a survey about most interesting feature of the video game to players, and provides a advertising campaign. The prediction seems somewhat convincing at the first glance; however, further scrutiny reveals that the argument suffers several flaws.

First of all, the author offers a survey to substantiate his assumption that games providing with lifelike graphics are popular in all players. However, the author fails to indicate how many player asked about the feature problem and where did the survey be executed. Perhaps the survey asked a few of video-game players in a small town which could not reflect the average level of the whole video players. The author must show that the survey constitutes a sufficiently large sample of the players, and that去掉that this sample is representative of such people. Without providing a proper sample, the author cannot confidently draw any general conclusion about the interest of players.

Even if the survey is statistically reliable, the author cannot draw the conclusion too hastily that the advertising campaign will achieve its goal. First, the campaign is directed at people 10 to 25 years old who are most likely to play video games the author asserts. But the author offers no evidence to substantiate this assert. Perhaps, people 10 to 25 years old have not enough time to play video games because of studying at school or working at company. Moreover, even if people of10 to 25 is the majority of people playing video games, it is entirely possible that the majority of people who purchase the video-game product are their parents rather than themselves, 有点混乱，the majority是孩子，who purchase the product是修饰孩子。我觉得这句话主干成了是the majority are their parents. 是孩子不愿意自己买游戏还是自己买不起游戏？我理解是买不起，你想表达他们无钱无是么？你看这样呢：it is possible that most people who purchase video-game have to obtain games from their parents instead of affording games by themselvesand their parents cannot understand the meaning of the advertisement and the campaign has no significant effect.买游戏肯定不会是父母看见广告去买来给孩子，肯定是孩子用零花钱或者要求父母去买。 So the arguer must provide enough evidence to rule out all the above-mentioned possibilities which might weaken the argument.我觉得不是说10-25岁的人玩不玩的问题，而是他们是不是最爱玩游戏的人。

Even if the author can substantiate the forgoing assumptions, the author predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically and reverse the trend that sales have declined over the past two years onby the assumption that the quality of games is the cause of the trend. However, the author provides no reason to prove it. Common sense dictates that the game iswould be popular when it is easy to begin. Maybe the video games of Whirlwind need a lot of expensive hardwareshardware不可数, which most players cannot afford the expense on it which is the real cause of the trend. Without taking into account all the other possible explanation, the arguer cannot reasonably conclude that the game quality is responsible for the sale decrease.

In conclusion, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should have toshould/have to去掉一个 prove that the game’s quality is responsible for the salesales decrease and that advertising campaign will besucceed if futurein future?没看明白. Moreover, the arguer must provide enough evidence to rule out all the above alternatives which might weaken the argument.

优点不多说啦，感觉论述有些地方不清晰。别的都很好。