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题目:ISSUE184 - "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
字数:474 用时:0:45:00 日期:2009-3-7
Human beings always have theories. In the ancient Egypt, the words of gods are a kind of theories. They lead the people when to saw seeds, when to have harvest, even when to warship the gods themselves. In a word, theories become so critical that not only ancient people find it helpful, so do the people nowadays have this idea. So the question rises, as we human beings find the theories, how could we prove the theories true? Can data be critical to theories?
Theories, often basis on axiom, require no data after all. Math, without any apparent subject, is founded on five axioms. Through this, math never needs data, and there have a lot of theories be proven. Nowadays, several of math books become so huge, and they all have a lot of usage to our human beings, yet none of them is proved directly by the data. It happens as the same in the company. When the company enters a new field, the leader of the company has to find theories to support him, through all these theories is based on the old field, and the data of which becomes no use at all. Just imagine what the manager should do without vivid data. Of course, he/she would rather find the theories and let the whole plan be established. This is taking a risk, but not a mistake.
In many fields, the theories are founded without data, yet data has proved the theories correct later, while in other places the theories is a summary of the data. The manager of the company uses the data to reform the theories when having enough data. However, in certain cases, it is the data that make theories more vivid. Without the data of stars from his tutor Tycho, Kepler cannot calculate on it, so he could not find the three principles of the universe. In modern physics, data becomes so critical that without the data, theories can not be accepted by the majority of Physicist.
In some aspects, data can mislead the theories. Data can record what has happened in history and present, through it can not predict future, which is the job of theories. However, the situation of theories is always changing, especially in the modern society. How can we prove the theories of future without the theories of future? It is adjustable to rely on the data, which only represents the evidence of surface. And what should we do to make the theories authorized? The key is having more theories to prove it.
In conclusion, data is only a record of history and present, and cannot predict future, while the theories play a key role in leading us in the future. A balance must be made when we face theories and data. Only through this way, can we finally make the theories justified. |
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