Argument6 永不言弃第三十次作业 by stgzhao 7#

stgzhaoUID: 2583165

TOPIC: ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
WORDS: 518          TIME: 00:28:33          DATE: 2009-3-10 14:41:19

This argument draws a conclusion that the C Note will make money but opening a jazz music club in Monroe, which at first glance to be an obvious one advocated by several facts that few competitors occur nearby and a jazz festival has attracted 100,000 people last summer. To bolster to author's claim the argument also cites a nationwide study showing how much a jazz fan spends on jazz. Close examination of the supporting evidences, however, reveals the author's claim to be incredible due to several logical flaws.
To begin with, the fact that currently the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away cannot serve as strong evidence to the conclusion that C Note will benefit a lot from Monroe. On the contrary, it is entirely possible that the jazz market in Monroe is too small to attract any jazz club settling here, which obviously indicate that the C Note could not become a tremendously profitable enterprise as the author asserts.
Secondly, the number of people who attend Monroe's jazz festival last summer provides little sound information about how Monroe's civilians like jazz. Perhaps people from other cities nearby consist most of the 100,100 people. Or perhaps people went to the jazz festival because they would like to join the public rather than really love jazz. If so, however, the author conclusion about make profits in Monroe by opening a jazz club will be greatly undermine.
Moreover, the fact that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is "Jazz Nightly" cannot strengthen the author's proposal either. It is of possibility that those jazz musicians live in Monroe because Monroe is good place for living rather than Monroe's people love jazz so much. Or, on the contrary, it may be due to that Monroe's people do not like jazz which provides the musicians a quiet place for relaxation without those crazy fans. Besides, the "Jazz Nightly"'s rating high does not indicate that people in Monroe will also tend to enjoy jazz in clubs. Failing to making sound connection of the these, however, greatly undermine the author's claim.
Finally, the nationwide study showing the trend that typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment does not necessarily apply to Monroe. It is quite possible that people in Monroe do not follow this general trend. Perhaps Monroe is small city where even jazz fans do exist, it be enough for them to spend $500 per year to enjoy jazz. For that matter, the trend might be just opposite. Thus, the nationwide trend that the argument cites does not lead to strong evidence to the author's claim.
In sum, the conclusion that a jazz club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise is incredible and therefore unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen the author's claim the argument would have to some better investigation on how much likely Monroe's people will go to clubs to enjoy jazz. To better assess the argument I will also need whether jazz fans in Monroe are willing to spend as much as a nation average degree.