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发表于 2009-6-21 19:46:23
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Argument 25
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中,Ocean View的旅客增加了,开设了很多新的商业,而且税收增加了30%。改善Hopewell的经济,产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅。
1.假性因果,开了新的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆->游客增加开了新商业税收30%
2.错误类比,Hopewell和Ocean View错误的类比的,2者有区别的
3.即便以上2条假设都是对的,这也是2年前的事情了。
Argument 37
Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river-the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea.
一种具有独特花纹的编织篮子以前只在史前村庄Palea的临近地区发现过,因而被认为是Palea居民所独有的。然而最近,考古学家在一个与Palea隔着一条叫做Brim河的村庄Lithos发现了一个这样的Palea篮子。Brim河很深很宽,所以古代Palea人只能坐船穿过它,但没有证据表明Palea人拥有船只。而且能够运载大量人和货物的船只直到Palea人消失几千年后才出现。而且,Palea人应该没有必要穿过这条河流--Palea周围的林地有丰富的果实和小动物。这表明那种所谓的Palea篮子并不是那里所独有的。
1.作者没有说明B河是现在宽还是以前宽,没有说明B河的任何数据来支持P人没船过不了。
2.作者说没有证据表明P人没船只,可能是尚未发现证据呢?再者,过河的途径就只有一条么?
3.再者,就算以上2点成立,作者没说明篮子的出现时间,可能是P人有了船再过去和L人交易的呢?
4最后,假性因果,难道有丰富的果实和小动物就不用渡河交易了么?
Argument 206
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper.
"Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league softball players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine."
去年在全国范围内,随着越来越多的9岁以下儿童参加少年棒球和足球比赛,有超过80000的少年选手受伤。在最近一次研究所作的采访中,很多大城市的少年棒球选手报告说存在来自教练和家长要求赢得比赛的心理压力。而且,教育专家指出这些运动项目长时间的训练占据了本应用于学习的时间。由于不利因素明显超过了有利因素,我们Parkville应该停止组织9岁以下儿童的体育比赛。
1.受伤的是棒球和足球比赛,不能表明要停止所有的9岁以下儿童比赛
2.作者没有考虑到比赛带来的好处,只是说了坏处
3.这项统计数据是全国性的,整体->个体问题
4.研究采访->全部的运动员还是一小撮运动员?
Argument 209
The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
在今年的过去三个季度里,在我们总裁Pat Salvo的领导下,利润显著下降。因此,我们应该给予她优厚的补偿并要求她辞职。我们应该任命Rosa Winnings来代替她的职位。Rosa当前是Starlight Jewelry的总裁,这家公司的利润在过去几年中显著增长。尽管我们要付给Rosa两倍于我们付给Pat的工资,但这将是值得的因为我们马上可以看到利润的显著增长。
1.让SJ的利润增长的因素有很多,不是有了Rosa->利润增长,假性因果
2.就算是Rosa让SJ的利润增长了,不一定代表是他现在能带FTC的利润增长,错误类比
3.就算以上全成立,但由于要付给R2倍于P的工资,利润是基于收入和支出的,工资增加得若比利润增加的快可能会导致FTC总利润下降 |
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