0910AW 同主题写作第七期 ARGUMENT101 by Virtual_Pro

Virtual_ProUID: 2560768

TOPIC: ARGUMENT101 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals.

"In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers."
WORDS: 441
TIME: 01:00:00
DATE: 2009-6-18 10:53:45

In this argument, after analyses of a survey and a further deduction, the president of a breakfast company concluded that a new version of breakfast cereals would increase company profits and simultaneously improve the health of their customers. His reasoning and deduction seems logical, however, could not stand after carefully analyses because of several vital logical flaws.

At the beginning the president mentioned that in a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. Then he inferred that by fortifying their Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, they can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. However, there are a few intermediate links that should be confirmed between the survey and his inference. First and foremost, the people who ate soybeans at least five times per week had lower cholesterol levels may not because of the breakfast itself. It is possible that this kind of people has a more regular life habits that could help them keep lower cholesterol level. Besides, people who like to eat soybeans may at the same time don't like other kinds of food that lead to the high cholesterol levels.

Secondly, even though the soybeans have to some extent relationship to the high cholesterol, it could not assure that the Wheat-O cereal would appeal the health concerning customers. There are many kinds of cereals that are good for health, and the health concerning customers would further consider the price or other factors to make the final decision. In addition, even if fortifying the Wheat-O cereal would appeal more consumers, the total sales of all kinds of cereal may not consequently increase because of the possible sales decrease in other kinds of cereal.

The president finally concluded that the new version of Wheat–O should increase company profits. Besides the reasons mentioned above, this conclusion is still too hasty and not sufficiently proved. As everybody knows the profits not only relate to the sales but also relate to the difference between the selling price and the cost. Compare to the selling price, if the cost of Wheat-O cereal is enough high, the sales does not count. Furthermore, there are a few opportunity costs that should be considered. Fortifying the Wheat-O cereal possibly lead to the decrease the sales of other cereals, and therefore makes the total profits of the company remain unchanged, even decline.

In conclusion, the president simply analyzed the survey and hastily inferred that the new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and improve the health of their customers. The pool logic in his argument makes his conclusion not stand. To improve his logic, he should provide more direct evidence of the relationship between soybeans cereal and cholesterol level. Besides, before conclude that the profits will increase, he should do more researches in the price and cost.