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提纲
开头 conclusion evidence logical flaw.
正文:
1.一个店不能代表全国情况,即使全国都是这样,那也是去年的情况,没有充分的证据表明这会保持下去
2.调查的回复者为subscriber 并不能代表全体顾客,可能订阅者为domestic producer of cheeses. 他们的回答是有明显的倾向性的Even if we accept
the result of this unfair survey, as the survey reflect an increasing preference rather a greater proportion, it is still insufficient to draw the conclusion that the majority of the customers will buy domestic cheeses.
3.The author’s conclusion that they can improve profits by stopping stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese is unwarranted. As profit is factor of not only cost but also revenue, it is highly possible that the imported cheese could gain high revenue.
结尾
Provide complete information of the nationwide sales circumstance. An accuracy survey of the customs’ consuming habits. A comprehensive analysis of both revenue and cost.
TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 419
TIME: 01:00:00
DATE: 2009-7-15 下午 04:45:54
In the argument, the author concluded that the chain of cheese stores could improve profits in all their stores by stopping stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. To support this conclusion, the author took the circumstance of a newest store as an example. Furthermore he cited a survey conducted by a magazine which indicates the preference of domestic cheese is increasing. However, further examination reveals that these evidences alone could not lend strong logical support to the conclusion.
First of all, the circumstance in the newest store that the five best-selling cheeses were all domestic cheeses last year could not typify nationwide preferences of domestic cheeses. It is entirely possible that in other places the demotic cheeses did not sell well as the taste of domestic cheeses were not welcomed in these places. Even if we accept that the domestic cheeses sold well in every store last year, without sufficient evidence, it is unwarranted to promise this state maintains unchanged in the future. Therefore, to make the recommendation more persuasive, the author should provide complete sales information through out the country.
In addition, the respondents of the survey are the subscribers of Cheeses of the World, which could not be considered as the represents of the customers. For instance, it might be this case that the subscribers are almost the domestic producers of cheeses. Their responses are obviously tendency. Even if we accept the result of this unfair survey, as the survey reflects an increasing preference rather a greater proportion, it is still insufficient to draw the conclusion that the majority of the customers will buy domestic cheeses.
Finally, even if we accept the assumption that majority of costumers prefers domestic cheeses than the imported over the country, the recommendation that we could improve profits by stopping stocking many varieties of imported cheeses is still open to question, as profit is a factor of not only cost but also revenue. Perhaps the unit profit of imported cheeses is much higher, although their sales are fewer than the domestic, they may gain higher profits than the domestic. Before the president adopts the recommendation, he should consider this possibility comprehensively.
To sum up, the argument seems well presented but not well reasoned. It could be improved by providing complete information about the nationwide sales circumstance and an accuracy survey about the customs' consuming habits for each store. Furthermore, before drawing the conclusion, the author should comprehensively analyze both revenue and stocking cost in order to make the profit warranted. |
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