【辉太郎杀G大队】7/15业 Argument20 by MC dragonfly

lmcdragonflyUID: 2601914

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 449
TIME: 00:42:03
DATE: 2009-7-15 下午 09:58:09

Supposing that the limits on moped rentals in Torseau(T) contributed to the 50% decline in moped accidents last year, the author concludes that Balmer island can reach the same goal by setting the similar limits on 6 moped and bicycle rental companies. Plausible as it seems, careful examination reveals that the argument is based on several unwarranted assumptions, which undermine the validity of reasoning.

First of all, the author takes it for granted that it is the limit on moped rentals uniquely causes the decline in moped accidents. The author fails to establish such causal relationship. It is entirely possible that other strict rules such as restricting the mopeds' admission to some major roads contributes to the 50% reduction in moped accidents. Even the fact that the weather last year was so terrible that less mopeds are using in the T is one of the possible factors. Without considering and ruling out these causes, it is unwarranted for the author to came to such a assumption.

Secondly, even if there is such causal relationship, the author make another unfair assumption that the same phenomenon that cause the accidents decline in T will certainly cause a similar decline in B. Maybe the two places share little similarity in economy conditions, population composition and culural backgrounds, even if they are neighboring. It is entire possible that the public transport services are much better in T and people there quickly find a good replacement for mopeds and the condition will not be so in B. Perhaps the limitation on mopeds will result in the rising of bicycles rental, which will also leads to accidents involving pedestrians and mopeds. Without detailed information, how can the author safely claims the validity of the analogy.

Finally, even if the analogy above is reasonable to some extent, it remains a question that the small range of the limitations will have the intended effect. The author provides no information about the overall origins of the mopeds to lend.
Perhaps there are more than six moped and bicycle rentals companies in B and even there are many privates or families who will provide the unexpected moped rental. In absence of ruling out these possibilities, how can we believe that the limited restrictions on 6 companies will have the intended effect?
In summary, the argument is not convincing at all. To bolster his reasoning, the author should provide more evidence to confirm the reliability of the causal relationship between the limitation on moped rentals and the decline in moped accidents. More information are also required on the similarity of
two places and the overall moped rental condition to ensure the validity of the analogy and the effect of the restrictions.

ApplemangoUID: 2661244

我尽快改好传上来......

ApplemangoUID: 2661244

话说我觉得这篇文章写得很好，除了一点点拼写错误，你把它搬上word就可以看到下面画线的。
我就不把文章传上来了。

真厉害啊，文章写得不错呢