ISSUE184 =August Rush=小组第5次作业 by crepuscularlyw

crepuscularlywUID: 2645654

TOPIC: ISSUE184 - "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
WORDS: 439+70
TIME: 00:44:28
DATE: 2009-7-28 13:44:35

Is it a grave mistake to theorize before one has data? It is inaccurate or partial for one to theorize before one has data, however, some reasonable hypothesizes are all right and not all the theories we see today have enough data to become truism.

To begin with, most theories are based on enough data. For instance, the specific scientific theory like some gene projects, without data, scientists cannot find the exact sequence of human genes. Thus in some trials like the cure of inherited diseases, if the sequence of genes is not based on enough and accurate data then whenever we change the sequence of the gene in our body it may cause a chaos. The government collects data to judge about its people's living standard, average education level, contentment toward the political leaders in order to improve the government itself. Without accurate data, the scientists, if the scientists and government leaders accept the misrepresent data they may make a wrong decision, which will do harm to the whole society. In some specific areas where the clear data are indispensable it would be a grave mistake if one theorizes before one has data.

Admittedly, our theories are mostly based on data, there are some great theories that are theorized without enough data initially. Some suspicions like the famous Goldbach Conjecture that every number not larger than 6 is a sum of two prime numbers, part of it '1+2=3', was testified by Cheng Jingrun after relatively a long time before the theory was put forward. China put forward its theory of Socialism, which is a combination of China's present situation and the Socialism. This is just a theory, not with data about the feasibility or the consequence about the theory, but it is on behalf of all the Chinese people and has been judged from our ancestors’ foot steps, which seems the best way to solve our present problems. Those theories like mentioned above are not based on accurate data are proved to be all right after tests.

At last, theories that are thought to be based on data are not always true, we cannot be so assertive to make a conclusion that all the great theories are all accurately based on enough data, but they can be remedied in order to reach the real theories.
The truism is not always the truism. Isaac Newton's absolute time and relative time was proved to be wrong by Einstein and the Bruno's geocentric theory was overturned by Copernicus’s heliocentric theory, nevertheless, these theories are thought to be the truism at that time. In this way, there are many wrong theories that are not proved wrong yet, because much of them are conducted with data but not enough.

To sum up, it is true that some theories must base on data, however, the assumptive theories also help us advance. On the other hand, those theories that are thought to be truism without enough data can be proved wrong. It is too hasty for one to theorize just before one has enough data.


越写越少了，查了个例子加上来了~~