Argument 177 提纲

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Argument 177
Arg 177 sites for a new HobCo hobby Shop-o

The following appeared in a memo from New Ventures Consulting to the president of HobCo, Inc., a chain of hobby shops.

"Our team has completed its research on suitable building sites for a new HobCo hobby Shop in the city of Grilldon. We discovered that there are currently no hobby shops in southeastern Grilldon. When our researchers conducted a poll of area residents, 88 percent of those who responded indicated that they would welcome the opening of a hobby shop in southeastern Grilldon. Grilldon is in a region of the nation in which the hobby business has increased by 300 percent during the past decade. In addition, Grilldon has a very large population of retirees, a demographic with ample time to devote to hobbies. We therefore recommend that you choose southeastern Grilldon as the site for your next HobCo Hobby Shop. We predict that a shop in this area will draw a steady stream of enthusiastic new HobCo customers.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

ground/ data: no hobby shop in the area according to the research
g/d: 88% of those who responded - welcome the opening of a hobby shop
g/d: in the area the hobby business has increased by 300%
g/d: large number of retirees with ample time for hobbies
claim: choose Grilldon as the site


G1: Our team has completed its research on suitable building sites for a new HobCo hobby Shop in the city of Grilldon. We discovered that there are currently no hobby shops in southeastern Grilldon.


G2: When our researchers conducted a poll of area residents, 88 percent of those who responded indicated that they would welcome the opening of a hobby shop in southeastern Grilldon.


G3: Grilldon is in a region of the nation in which the hobby business has increased by 300 percent during the past decade.


G4: In addition, Grilldon has a very large population of retirees, a demographic with ample time to devote to hobbies.


C1: We therefore recommend that you choose southeastern Grilldon as the site for your next HobCo Hobby Shop. We predict that a shop in this area will draw a steady stream of enthusiastic new HobCo customers.


A1 (G1, C1): There are no hobby shops in other areas or online that may meet the demand for hobby shops in the area.

A2 (G2, C1): The survey is reliable and the respondents who welcome the new shop would actually spend money there.

A3 (G3, C1): There was some recent increase in business and the factors that contributed to the business increase may lead to the prosperity of the new shop.

A4 (G4, C1): The retirees do not have other things to spend their time and have the money to spend on hobbies.


questions about the attitudes of the residents
- response rate (if the rate is low, the attitudes of those who do not respond remain unknown)
- will they spend money in the hobby shop (welcome <> consume)
- what about residents in adjacent areas (are they interested)

questions about the hobby business growth in the region
- is the increase related to residents that the proposed hobby shop can serve
- is the business growth related to hobby shops (perhaps the online hobby business is the main driver)
- what was the increase in the past 2-3 years (will the trend continue)

questions about the retirees
- are the retirees willing to spend money in the hobby shop (perhaps they have other hobbies that do not require a visit to a hobby shop)
- do they really have a lot of spare time (maybe they need to babysit their grandchildren or they attend community colleges for continuing education)
- are they physically fit to visit the shop



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