argument 153
The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of Bargain Brand Cereals.Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
One year ago we introduced our first product, Bargain Brand breakfast cereal.
Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies.
Although the companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their prices and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit.
Given our success in selling cereal, we recommend that Bargain Brand now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as quickly as possible.
assumption 1: the competition from other companies should not be taken seriously
- maybe the sale volume and profit have been reduced due to the competition although the business is still profitable (so efforts should be made to attract more customers)
- perhaps measures should be taken to introduce other variety of budget cereal to stay competitive
assumption 2: the budget brands planned by other companies will not threaten the cereal business
- maybe the new budget brands will take away some customers
- need to take measures to keep the customers
assumption 3: marketing other low-priced products will be as successful as the cereal business
- the market of the other products may not be similar to cereal market in that customers like cheap stuff (maybe customers care more about the quality, e.g. formula milk or food for baby)
- exploring markets of other products may not be the priority for the company (resources should be devoted to the cereal business)
- maybe other companies have been successful in offering cheap stuff in the other markets
Argument 158
The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
Five years ago, Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly.
Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent.
The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that.
Because Top Dog has some of its largest stores in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly.
If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again.
evidence about why Fish Emporium increased sales by 15% at the time and in what ways the increase was related to the advertising
- maybe at the time the economy was growing stronger and the demand increased
- perhaps at the time the company introduced some new products that were very attractive
- maybe the company hired a new sales director that are extremely competent
- if the increase in sales was not due to the advertising, …
evidence about why Fish Emporium had greater increase in sales in Gulf City and in what ways the increase was related to advertising
- maybe the customers in Gulf City had a traditional loyalty to the brand
- perhaps the sales director or other staff in Gulf City were particularly well trained
- maybe Exotic Pets Monthly was very popular in Gulf City at the time
evidence about whether the stores in Gulf City would benefit from the advertising and how important are the benefits of the advertising for Gulf City stores relative to other stores
- perhaps the sale volume of Top Dog in Gulf City has been pretty good and there is little room for further improvement (then the marginal return of further advertising would be limited)
- perhaps the sale was very poor in Gulf City due to issues that could not be addressed through advertising (poor services; incompetent sales teams)
- maybe there is a better advertising agent in Gulf City
Argument 160
The following appeared in a recommendation from the President of the Amburg Chamber of Commerce.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately.
The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district.
However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant.
Since high-intensity lighting is clearly the most effective way to combat crime, we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg.
If we install this high-intensity lighting, we will significantly reduce crime rates in Amburg.
why vandalism declined immediately and whether or not it will rebound
- maybe the criminals were not used to the lighting and stopped vandalizing temporarily
- once they get used to the change they might start vandalizing again (need to track the long-term effects
whether the vandalism rate was high in Amburg and the issue needs to be tackled
- perhaps vandalism rate was really low and there is little room for improvement
- and the reason why police patrol had little effects might be that the issue was not serious
how effective are lighting and police patrols for treating the other crimes in Amburg
- perhaps the crime rates could be more significantly reduced by focusing on other crimes such as theft and robbery
- maybe police patrols are more effective for such crimes
Argument 168
The following is a letter that recently appeared in the Oak City Gazette, a local newspaper.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The primary function of the Committee for a Better Oak City is to advise the city government on how to make the best use of the city's limited budget.
However, at some of our recent meetings we failed to make important decisions because of the foolish objections raised by committee members who are not even residents of Oak City.
People who work in Oak City but who live elsewhere cannot fully understand the business and politics of the city.
After all, only Oak City residents pay city taxes, and therefore only residents understand how that money could best be used to improve the city.
We recommend, then, that the Committee for a Better Oak City vote to restrict its membership to city residents only.
We predict that, without the interference of non-residents, the committee will be able to make Oak City a better place in which to live and work.
are the objections raised by non-resident members foolish and whether the failure to make decisions was bad for the city
- perhaps the authors of the letters are biased or their interests were negatively influenced by the objections
- maybe the non-resident committee members’s objection was acutally beneficial for the city in the long term
- maybe postponing the decision was not necessarily a bad thing (more thorough discussion could be helpful)
why the exp of living in the city was important for understanding the business or politics of the city
- maybe city’s business and politics are quite similar to other cities and some general principle and research methods can be usefully applied to understand (if the non-resident members are experienced in these principles and methods, then …)
- or maybe by reading about the documents and reports from consulting firms can help people to understand the business and politics of the city adequately (then no need to live there)
- perhaps not living there could help develop fresh perspective that can be useful
whether the resident members are competent and whether other issues need to be fixed to make the city a better place
- maybe the current resident members and the future resident members that will replace the non-residents are corrupted or ill-informed
- perhaps the real problem with the city is that the tax code should be reformed to generate more tax revenue
argument 170
本帖最后由 tesolchina 于 2015-8-9 17:06 编辑The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping malls around the country.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The surface of a section of Route 101, paved just two years ago by Good Intentions Roadways, is now badly cracked with a number of dangerous potholes.
In another part of the state, a section of Route 40, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition.
In a demonstration of their continuing commitment to quality, Appian Roadways recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery and hired a new quality-control manager.
Therefore, I recommend hiring Appian Roadways to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls.
I predict that our Appian access roads will not have to be repaired for at least four years.
the reason why Route 101 was badly cracked
- maybe the route was more heavily used
- perhaps the overweight trucks were allowed to use the route due to the incompetent management and law enforcement agent
- maybe the potholes were caused by some accidents that are unrelated to the construction company
the reason why Route 40 was in good conditions for more than 4 years
- maybe the road was less heavily used due to the poor economy in the area
- maybe the the toll for the route was more expensive and therefore fewer vehicles used the route
- perhaps the route was better maintained with more money spent
whether the new paving machinery and the new manager could help improve the quality of the road
- maybe the new machinery was more energy efficient but woule not make the road more robust
- perhaps the new machinery could add to the cost of the projects
- maybe the new manager was not as competent as the old one and are better paid (more costly)
whether Appian Roadways has better expertise in building access roads than Good Intentions
- maybe Good Intentions are more experienced in building access roads
- perhaps the staff of GI are better trained to build access roads
到这里，argument的题库就算刷完了；接下来还有更多的任务，不过刷完题库是值得庆贺的！
Argument 通關達成！撒花{:rose:} 赞！争取考前全部看完！ 强{:rose:} 请老师指点修改以后的文章，我针对问题进行了调整。另外这楼下面还有另外2篇我的习作也想请老师指导。thanks~
Issue 1
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=1869811&pid=1779818310&fromuid=3622097 tesolchina 发表于 2014-10-23 23:16 static/image/common/back.gif
51) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Butte ...
老师你好！
关于other explanations
你的Argu15 范文的这段
Meanwhile, for the lack of complaints in both cases, we also need to consider the possibility that customers decided not to come to HPH for dinner again after the change about butter. They simply voted against HPH by their feet without taking the trouble to lodge a complaint. We need to track the customer returning rate before and after the change about butter to decide if the change has cost the restaurant some customers. Indeed, such loss of customers may be more threatening to the restaurant than complaints as it is harder for the manager to recognize the problems when the customers just gave up the restaurant silently.
好像在讲公司盈利问题，但是我觉题目貌似没提到盈利问题（虽然我也觉得换成人造奶油的目的就是为了省钱），这样写可以吗？感觉应该就只能围绕
In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, 是否indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
和
Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.
这两个假设提出其他理由吧？
老师，您觉得对吗？ supersam 发表于 2015-8-11 22:00 static/image/common/back.gif
老师你好！
关于other explanations
你的Argu15 范文的这段
没看懂你的问题 tesolchina 发表于 2015-8-11 22:11 static/image/common/back.gif
没看懂你的问题
哦 我自己看懂了！ 是我想错了 tesolchina 发表于 2015-5-28 10:59 static/image/common/back.gif
51) Young people should be encouraged to pursue long-term, realistic goals rather than seek immedia ...
怒赞
Argument 79 提纲
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
Since those issues of Newsbeat magazine that featured political news on their front cover were the poorest-selling issues over the past three years, the publisher of Newsbeat has recommended that the magazine curtail its emphasis on politics to focus more exclusively on economics and personal finance.
She points to a recent survey of readers of general interest magazines that indicates greater reader interest in economic issues than in political ones.
Newsbeat's editor, however, opposes the proposed shift in editorial policy, pointing out that very few magazines offer extensive political coverage anymore.
model-outline
the reasons why the issues featuring political news did not sell well
- maybe the editorial and writing staff did not do a good job
- perhaps the particular issue are not interesting
- the front cover was poorly designed (not attractive anough)
the usefulness of the survey results in making decisions
- whether Newsbeat is considered a general interest magazine
- whether the survey respondents could represent the target readers of Newsbeat
- whether the line between economic and political issues could be clearly drawn in readers’ minds
the reasons why extensive political coverage is not popular anymore
- other magazines do not have the experts on these issues (maybe Newsbeat has some advantages to occupy the niche)
- readers switch to other channels such as social media for such information (maybe Newsbeat should give up this topic as well)
Argument 80 提纲
The following is taken from a memo from the advertising director of the Super Screen Movie Production Company.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
According to a recent report from our marketing department, during the past year, fewer people attended Super Screen-produced movies than in any other year.
And yet the percentage of positive reviews by movie reviewers about specific Super Screen movies actually increased during the past year.
Clearly, the contents of these reviews are not reaching enough of our prospective viewers.
Thus, the problem lies not with the quality of our movies but with the public's lack of awareness that movies of good quality are available.
Super Screen should therefore allocate a greater share of its budget next year to reaching the public through advertising.
the reasons why fewer attended the movies
- maybe the number of movies produced last year was smaller than earlier years
- perhaps some movies have been distributed online without authorization
- the audience found the movies last year not attractive
audience care about what reviewers have to say
- perhaps the reviewers evaluated the movies from perspectives that are not shared by the general audience
- general audience are interested in a different set of features (good-looking movie stars; romance; thrilling plot)
more money on advertising can help spread the words
- maybe it is not the amount of money that matters, rather where the money should be spent (social media rather than newspaper)
- the advertising agent should be fired (not doing a good job)