大牛帮忙看看吧..ARGUMENT95

micalmingUID: 2773629

TOPIC: ARGUMENT95 - The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner in Sophia County.
"Census data indicate that the number of retired couples without children who are moving into Sophia County is steadily rising; private schools in our county report substantial increases in enrollment; and a statewide survey of parents shows that over 10 percent now support the idea of home schooling instead of public schooling funded by the county government. Such demographic trends suggest that our county will not have to construct new school buildings and that we can therefore decrease the budget for county-funded public schools."
WORDS: 481          TIME: 00:45:00          DATE: 2010-5-27 21:31:46
This passage suggest that Sophia county will not have to construct new school buildings and they can therefore decrease the budget for county-funded public schools. The budget planner, author of the passage, quotes the census data of retired couples without children moving to their county, enrollment of private school and public opinion to the home schooling, to support his proposal. Still, there is insufficient evidence to prove he is right.
First, increase of the number of retired couples without children who are moving into Sophia County, does not mean the decrease of the children who are living the county, thus it does not mean the decrease of the budget fot public schools. On one hand, the moving into of those retired couples may probably just lead to the increase of total population of Sophia County. On the other hand, no evidence can definitely prove that a retired couple can no longer have a child. They can adopt one, even if they are unable to multiply. Also, the main cause of increase of children are not retired couples, but newly married couples, because most of couples will have a child after they get married.
Second, substantial increases in enrollment of private school in Sophia County, does not support the author's proposal. It is known to all that the tuition fee for private school is too expensive for a lot of family to afford. Therefore the increases in enrollment of private school may possibly be due to the increase of average salary, or the increase of rich family. However, the  interest of poor family will be impaired, after the government perform the author's proposal. Furthermore, even if all the family can afford the private school, the school enrollment will still be possibly insufficient, which requres more enrollment in public school.
Third, the survey of parents' idea about public school makes few difference to support the author's proposal. For one hand, the survey shows that there are only 10 percent of parents support home schooling, which intimates that the left 90 percent probably prefer public schooling funded by government. Also, the 10 percent of parents, just show their atitude for home schooling, and that does not mean their final decision. For another hand, even if most of parents prefer home schooling and make their decison instead of public schooling, the government need not to decrease the budget for public schools, because the author do not provide the decrease of students enrollment in public schools.
In a nutshell, all the demographic trends that the budget planner provide, make insufficient evidence to support his proposal, that  their county will not have to construct new school buildings and that they can therefore decrease the budget for county-funded public schools. And the census data of retired couples' moving into, the enrollment increase of private school and the survey to the parents, suggest no support for the author's idea.

micalmingUID: 2773629

DDD