ARGUMENT6 同题写作文14期

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Argument6
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
'A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.



In the application the develpers claim that the C note would undoubtedly make profits. To support the claim the developers cite the facts that: (1)there is no jazz club in the city at present; (2) jazz is popular in Monroe; (3) the average money spent on jazz entertainment is considerable high. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the claim.

At the first place, the lack of local jazz club does indicate that the C note would obtain profits in Monroe. It is entirely possible that people are used to patronize the jazz club 65 miles away which is a short distance in modern society. Besides, the fact that Monroe still has none jazz club may suggest the unprofitable future of the C note, for if there were considerable profits jazz clubs would be opened earlier. Without ruling out these possibility these developers can not convince me that the C note would be profitable.

At the second place, it is entirely possible that jazz music is not adored in Monroe. The attendants of the jazz festival may come from other places, the well-known jazz musicians may not be willing to perform in the C note, and the popularity of the jazz radio program may be due to the boredom of other programs rather than the spontaneous appreciation of the jazz music. Without ruling out these possible explanation the developers can not convince me that the jazz music is popular in Monroe.

At the third place, the developers assume that the local people in Monroe will aslo spend many money on the jazz entertainment. The situation in the nationwide may not be representive of Monroe. It is entirely possible that people in Monroe do not spend such amount of money on jazz. Even if the individual of Monroe will put considerable money on the C note, whether the population in Monroe will contribute enough profits to the C note in unknown. Until a survey on these problems is conducted I remain unconvinced that the C note will make money in Monroe.

Last but not least, even if the market would render enormous profits, the C note might not obtain all of them. The developers do not consider the competition in the market. The stores that sell jazz disks, other new jazz clubs, and other programs of the jazz entertainments may lower the C note's profits. Without consideration of these possible situations, the developers can not convince me that the C note is profitable.

In sum, the claim relis on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the claim the developers must provide clear evidences that the local people in deed enjoy the jazz music and will patronize the C note. To better evaluate the claim, I would need to know the money spent on the jazz entertainment by local people. I would also need to know that the competition of the local market of the jazz entertainment.

[ 本帖最后由 staralways 于 2006-3-20 22:04 编辑 ]