argument147【加州阳光】第二次作业

lastpearlUID: 2119955

147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

1.        销售下降可能是由于经济衰退，商业不景气或者不恰当的管理，即使有新的吸引人的游戏，销售量也可能并不上升。
2.        调查对像不一定具有代表性，广告针对10-25岁人群，但调查不是，这两者可能存在偏差。
3.        关于10到25岁最可能玩电游，没有数字，没有根据，是瞎猜的。
4.        •WV会卖得好，虽然玩家们认为这是最重要的特点，但并不表示生动了他们就一定买。因为游戏还有其他特点，比如类型、是否刺激、主题等。如果光有技术，思想不足，也不一定卖得好。而且他没有说用的什么技术，我们无法认同是否存在判断失误。
5.        针对10到15岁的人群的广告可能是无效的，也许10到15的并没有足够的经济能力去购买这个新游戏
6.  作者没有考虑其他可能影响新产品销售的因素。即使广告成功的吸引了10到15岁的注意力，可能新游戏比较昂贵，而竞争对手有更便宜更高级的产品．可能游戏销售是季节性的，因此不能保证在接下来的几个月中，销售额由大幅上涨。


The conclusion of this argument is that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To
justify this conclusion, the author cites a recent survey in which the player indicated that they prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Furthermore, the author reasons that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old-the age group most likely to play video games. Close inspection of the evidence reveals, however, that it lends little
credible support for the proposed course of action.

First, the arguer fails to analyze the reasons why the sales of Whirlwind video games declined over the past two years. It is entirely possible that the decline was as a result of factors such as economic depression, business recession or poor management. Maybe these problems have not been solved. Thus, even if Whirlwind introduces several new games which accord with the taste of game players, the sales cannot increase dramatically in the next few months. In fact, perhaps the same advertising campaign has been put in practice in the earlier games, and just this unsuccessful procedure caused the decline of the sales. Since the author has not pointed out the exact cause of the decline, I cannot be convinced that the new strategy will render the sales increase dramatically in.

Second, the author provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall group of people who like play video games. Lacking such evidence, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success of Whirlwind’s new games. Furthermore, the advertisement directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the percentage of which is not significant in the survey. Therefore, the result of the survey may not present the people 10 to 25 years old.
  
Third, the author fails to assure me that the people 10 to 25 years old most likely to play video games. There is no number, no warrant. If the fact is reverse, the reasoning is entirely unwarranted.

Forth, the new games which provide lifelike graphic and require the most up-to-date computers may be the preference of players, however, it doesn’t mean that the players will by it, Since there have other characteristics, such as pattern, theme and whether can feel stimulate when play the games, and so on. If the games only have a high technique and inane thoughts, it cannot sell well.

Fifth, the advertising campaign directed at people 10 to25 years old may turn out to be ineffective. Maybe the age-group people do not have enough money. They are most students and have little pin money. The parents may not glad to see that their children pay much attention to the games, they believe than the most import mission is study, so they do not agree with their children to buy the games. If the author cannot point out the people 10 to 25 years old have the ability to buy the new games, I cannot be convinced that the advertisement is effective.

Finally, the author fails to take into account other factors that might affect the sales of the newly introduced life-like video games. Even if the advertisement successfully attract the attention of the players which are 10 to 25 years old, the new games may be too expensive to afford or the competitors are likely to produce the manufacture which have the similar performance and even more chipper. Furthermore, perhaps game sales are seasonal and Whirlwind will need to wait longer than several months. If the author cannot rule out the possibilities, I simply cannot be swayed bye the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales in the next few months.

In summary, this argument is not convincing as it stands. To make it logically acceptable, the author would have to demonstrate that what caused the sales’ decline and whether the strategy can eliminate the problem, whether the survey accord with the advertisement strategy, what competing products might appear  to diminish the sales of the new games. Additionally, the author must provide evidence of the people 10 to 25 years old are interested in the new games. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.

lixiaomin046400UID: 2207959

147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

1.        销售下降可能是由于经济衰退，商业不景气或者不恰当的管理，即使有新的吸引人的游戏，销售量也可能并不上升。
2.        调查对像不一定具有代表性，广告针对10-25岁人群，但调查不是，这两者可能存在偏差。
3.        关于10到25岁最可能玩电游，没有数字，没有根据，是瞎猜的。
4.        •WV会卖得好，虽然玩家们认为这是最重要的特点，但并不表示生动了他们就一定买。因为游戏还有其他特点，比如类型、是否刺激、主题等。如果光有技术，思想不足，也不一定卖得好。而且他没有说用的什么技术，我们无法认同是否存在判断失误。
5.        针对10到15岁的人群的广告可能是无效的，也许10到15的并没有足够的经济能力去购买这个新游戏
6.  作者没有考虑其他可能影响新产品销售的因素。即使广告成功的吸引了10到15岁的注意力，可能新游戏比较昂贵，而竞争对手有更便宜更高级的产品．可能游戏销售是季节性的，因此不能保证在接下来的几个月中，销售额由大幅上涨。


The conclusion of this argument is that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To justify this conclusion, the author cites a recent survey in which the player indicated that they prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Furthermore, the author reasons that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old-the age group most likely to play video games. Close inspection of the evidence reveals, however, that it lends little credible support for the proposed course of action.

First, the arguer fails to analyze the reasons why the sales of Whirlwind video games declined over the past two years. It is entirely possible that the decline was as a result of factors（也可以用result from） such as economic depression, business recession or poor management. Maybe these problems have not been solved. Thus, even if Whirlwind introduces several new games which accord with the taste of game players, the sales cannot increase dramatically in the next few months. In fact, perhaps the same advertising campaign has been put in practice in the earlier games, and just this unsuccessful procedure caused the decline of the sales. Since the author has not pointed out the exact cause of the decline, I cannot be convinced that the new strategy will render the sales increase dramatically in.

Second, the author provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall group of people who like play video games. Lacking such evidence, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success of Whirlwind’s new games. Furthermore, the advertisement directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the percentage of which is not significant in the survey. Therefore, the result of the survey may not present the people 10 to 25 years old.
  
Third, the author fails to assure me that the people 10 to 25 years old most likely to play video games. There is no number, no warrant. If the fact is reverse, the reasoning is entirely unwarranted. （最好再深入论证一下）

Forth, the new games which provide lifelike graphic and require the most up-to-date computers may be the preference of players, however, it doesn’t mean that the players will by it, Since there have other characteristics, such as pattern, theme and whether can feel stimulate when play the games, and so on. If the games only have a high technique and inane thoughts, it cannot sell well.

Fifth, the advertising campaign directed at people 10 to25 years old may turn out to be ineffective. Maybe the age-group people do not have enough money. They are most students and have little pin（？） money. The parents may not glad to see that their children pay much attention to the games, they believe than（that） the most import mission is study, so they do not agree with their children to buy the games. If the author cannot point out the people 10 to 25 years old have the ability to buy the new games, I cannot be convinced that the advertisement is effective.

Finally, the author fails to take into account other factors that might affect the sales of the newly introduced life-like video games. Even if the advertisement successfully attract the attention of the players which are 10 to 25 years old, the new games may be too expensive to afford or the competitors are likely to produce the manufacture which have the similar performance and even more chipper. Furthermore, perhaps game sales are seasonal and Whirlwind will need to wait longer than several months. If the author cannot rule out the possibilities, I simply cannot be swayed bye （by） the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales in the next few months.

In summary, this argument is not convincing as it stands. To make it logically acceptable, the author would have to demonstrate that what caused the sales’ decline and whether the strategy can eliminate the problem, whether the survey accord with the advertisement strategy, what competing products might appear  to diminish the sales of the new games. Additionally, the author must provide evidence of the people 10 to 25 years old are interested in the new games. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.

Argument写的不错，思路挺广，论证清晰，向你学习

[ 本帖最后由 lixiaomin046400 于 2006-6-11 12:46 编辑 ]