Argument130 【黄金十二宫】第十次作业

微末三月UID: 205072

130The following appeared in the annual report of a chain of stores that sell supplies for do-it-yourself home improvements.

"Current reports indicate that sales of new homes nationwide declined by 9 percent during the past year, while sales of existing homes increased by 16 percent. Thus we can expect that the percentage of homeowners who will be making repairs or improvements to their homes will also increase. In addition, people who buy existing homes will have more money left over after the purchase to spend on home improvements. Finally, people who buy existing homes are more likely to make improvements themselves, as opposed to paying someone else. These factors combined indicate we can expect an increasing demand for products in all our stores nationwide, thus increasing our profits in the coming year."


ARGUMENT:
In this report, the arguer claims that the sell supplies for do-it-yourself will increase in the coming year, and accordingly result in an increase in the profits. However, this conclusion relies on a serious of groundless assumptions and therefore inconvincible as it stands.

To begin with, the reports provided in this argument are not sufficient to validate the assumption that homeowners prefer to make repairs and improvement to their homes. Since people purchase existing homes for all kinds of reasons, it is groundless to reach this conclusion just because the sales of those homes increased. Perhaps those existing homes maintain a good enough condition and do not need the repair. In addition, the assumption that people who buy existing homes will have more money left over to spend on home improvements is open to doubt. It is possible that people purchase that exiting homes just because they are short of ample money, not mention that they will spend these scarce income on home improvement. Even if we accept that people can afford these expenditures, it is also unwarranted to conclude that those people are more likely to make improvements themselves. Perhaps those improvement tasks need more special skills which these people lack. Without sufficient detailed information, these series of assumptions reached are questionable.

Moreover, the arguer fails to provide any evidence that people are inclined to purchase our product. Perhaps compared with our stores, it is more cheap and convenient to select other stores’ products at the same request. Or perhaps there are more choices in other stores, so they can satisfy the broad product demands of customers better. Besides, due to different sales conditions in different location, the demands for products vary, accordingly.  So the assumption that the increasing demand will appear in all stores nationwide is unfounded. Lacking further information about all the same kind stores, it is unfairly to conclude that people will choose our stores for house-improvement, and therefore result in an increasing demand nationwide.

Even if we accept all the foregoing assumptions, I remain unconvinced that this demand will keep the rising pace next year as the same as in this year for all evidence are cited in the current reports. It is entirely possible that the sales of new homes will dramatically increase for the price of new homes will be strictly restricted by new house-sale regulations published by government. If so, this prediction is unfounded.

In conclusion, careful scrutiny of the argument reveals several unproven assumptions, which render it unconvincing. To strengthen it, the arguer should provide further detailed information to support that people will choose our products as home improvements and the increase of sales of new homes nationwide immediately result in an increase in our profits in the coming year.

不好意思,迟交了.一周不写,发现着实生疏不少:L:L

[ 本帖最后由 微末三月 于 2006-6-22 21:16 编辑 ]

asong2004UID: 2178054

ARGUMENT:
In this report, the arguer claims that the sell supplies for do-it-yourself will increase in the coming year, and accordingly result in an increase in the profits. However, this conclusion relies on a serious of groundless assumptions and therefore inconvincible as it stands.

To begin with, the reports provided in this argument are not sufficient to validate the assumption that homeowners prefer to make repairs and improvement to their homes. Since people purchase existing homes for all kinds of（other就行了吧） reasons, it is groundless to reach this conclusion just because the sales of those homes increased. Perhaps those existing homes maintain a good enough condition and do not need the repair. In addition, the assumption that people who buy existing homes will have more money left over to spend on home improvements is open to doubt. It is possible that people purchase that exiting homes just because they are short of ample money, not mention that they will spend these scarce income on home improvement. Even if we accept that people can afford these expenditures, it is also unwarranted to conclude that those people are more likely to make improvements themselves. Perhaps those improvement tasks need more special skills which these people lack. Without sufficient detailed information, these series of assumptions reached are questionable. （呵呵呵，好晕啊，第一段谈了这么多的问题）

Moreover, the arguer fails to provide any evidence that people are inclined to purchase our product. Perhaps compared with our stores, it is more cheap and convenient to select other stores’ products at the same request.（这句是不是和其他旗下的连锁店比呢？是要反驳不是所有的连锁店都能有收益么） Or perhaps there are more choices in other stores, so they can satisfy the broad product demands of customers better. Besides, due to different sales conditions in different location, the demands for products vary, accordingly.  So the assumption that the increasing demand will appear in all stores nationwide is unfounded. Lacking further information about all the same kind stores, it is unfairly to conclude that people will choose our stores for house-improvement, and therefore result in an increasing demand nationwide.（每个都驳的简单了）

Even if we accept all the foregoing assumptions, I remain unconvinced that this demand will keep the rising pace next year as the same as in this year for all evidence are cited in the current reports. It is entirely possible that the sales of new homes will dramatically increase for the price of new homes will be strictly restricted by new house-sale regulations published by government（俺们买二手的吧，新房涨价有关吗）. If so, this prediction is unfounded.

In conclusion, careful scrutiny of the argument reveals several unproven assumptions, which render it unconvincing. To strengthen it, the arguer should provide further detailed information to support that people will choose our products as home improvements and the increase of sales of new homes nationwide immediately result in an increase in our profits in the coming year.
主要是攻击的顺序看起来不大舒服：比如第一段1不一定修房——2不一定买房——3不一定要自己修。第二段来年不一定所有的连锁店利润上升。第三段来年不一定这么多人买。总的来看应该倒过来讲吧，而第一段里的顺序也该是213

微末三月UID: 205072

这个批驳顺序的确让我很挠头!!

"Thus we can expect that the percentage of homeowners who will be making repairs or improvements to their homes will also increase. In addition, people who buy existing homes will have more money left over after the purchase to spend on home improvements. Finally, people who buy existing homes are more likely to make improvements themselves, as opposed to paying someone else.
感觉上面这一段是题设里很重要的一些不成立的假设,而且是一环套一环的.本来想把他们分开写,不过觉得每一段似乎都没得太多说,只好合成一段.但是一般说来,这种很多论点杂和的,应该放在最后一段来说.着实很困扰:mad:

第二段前提是即使我们接受所有第一段的假设,依旧不能确信... 因为顾客不一定会选择我们店.

第三段前提是即使我们接受所有第一段和第二段的假设,仍然不能确信...
然后新房的购买量(不是涨价哦)增加了.题设不是说因为新房卖得少.所以...吗?这里就自相矛盾了.

因为后两段的批驳都是建立在前一段的假设上,只能这样安排顺序了.:L

我想,衔接上应该还过渡得不够,所以asong才觉得怪怪的.得再改改