Argument141,99,97,46 【微观状态】 第三次作业

为了忘却的纪念UID: 2263082

Argument141
The following appeared in a newsletter distributed at a recent political rally.

"Over the past year, the Consolidated Copper Company (CCC) has purchased over one million square miles of land in the tropical nation of West Fredonia. Mining copper on this land will inevitably result in pollution and environmental disaster, since West Fredonia is home to several endangered animal species. But such disaster can be prevented if consumers simply refuse to purchase products that are made with CCC's copper until the company abandons its mining plans."

1.        The conclusion based on an assumption that mining copper in the tropical nation of West Fredonia will result in pollution and environmental disaster, while show no evidence to support it.
2.        The arguer also based on another assumption that most of the consumers would refuse to buy the products that are made with CCC’s copper. It is likely that CCC’s copper is the cheapest and best in the market. At last, the consumers are interests driven.  
3.        Even if the customers have got the agreement not to choose the production made with CCC’s copper, it is hard for the consumers to distinguish the productions including CCC’s copper with the others that do not.
4.        And, even if the consumers successfully let CCC abandon its mining plans by resisting the production including CCC’s copper, there may be another company produce copper and will have the same mining plan, after all, copper is needed in the market.


Argument99
The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."

1.        The arguer hastily extends the experience of our neighboring country A to our country, but overlooks the possible differences like the weather, the quality of farms and the inclinations of people.
2.        The arguer listed the evidence that A has produced 80 percent more rice last year than pervious after using the new seed, but failed to rule out any other possible reason that may also cause the increase of production, like A may also adopted some high-tech method, or some new fertilizer during cultivation.
3.        Even if it is the seed that contributes more to the yield, since agriculture also affected by several other factors like the weather per year, technology, the skills of the farmers and so on. Good seed does could not prove the high production in our country.
4.        Further more, even the yield of rice could be improved by using the new seed in our country, that does not necessarily mean our country’s balance of trade will increase, firstly, the arguer shows no evidence that the yield, after been increased, could satisfy the need of domestic market, maybe it just could eliminate the import of rice from other countries, but gives no remainders to be exported; and most likely, after using the new seed, all of our neighbor countries’ yield of rice have increased greatly and do not need to import rice.


Argument97
The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.

"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."

1.        The argument based on an assumption that additional sports programs on televisions would gain larger audience in KICK, while the survey used to support it is questionable. First, the nationwide survey does not represent the exact situation in KICK, second, the survey only mentioned about the men, how about the women, senior people and children? Without considering this, we may lose existing and potential costumers.
2.        The arguer listed the evidence that the share of television audience almost doubled in W, after the television station of W increased its sports broadcasts, but failed to rule out if there is any other reasons that may also cause the increase of audience at that period, maybe there is the held of Olympus Games that attracted more people. And, no evidence shows that the audience increased in W is mostly men, maybe the increase is because of the playing of a famous soap opera and thus attracted a lot of women.
3.        Could the experience of W be simply used to K? Maybe W has a relatively high percentage of men and the adding of sports programs would be preferred, while just the opposite situation in K. And also maybe even if been added, the sports program of W is little than K, then K does not need to increase.
4.        Furthermore, even if K successfully increased its audience share, that does not necessarily mean the company profit will increase.

Argument46
Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears-often similar in color, but much larger-were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear.

1.        The argument based on an assumption that the two different kinds of bears, which language of Innu has two words refer to and have been depicted in ancient legends of Innu, actually include grizzly bear. The arguer failed to give any evidence to support that.
2.        Even if grizzly bear is one of the two kinds of bears mentioned in the language and legends of Innu, we could not be convinced since though Innu has been lived in Labrador for thousands of years, the arguer needs to rule out the possibility that before moving to Labrador, Innu has been living in western provinces for a long time, and the words and legends of grizzly bear were came from that period of time.
3.        Furthermore, the words and legends of the Innu, which lived in Labrador for thousand of years, mentioned about the grizzly bear, does not necessarily mean that in 19th century, there is still grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer may mistaken the black bear, or any other kinds of bears, with grizzly bear because of dread and fear.