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ARGUMENT71 -
Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.
By generally comparing the two methods for copper extracting, the author of the argument draws the conclusion that the electricity used for the copper-extraction industry is going to decline significantly. Based on dubious evidence and illogical reasoning, the assertion is far from perfect.
To begin with, without detailed evidence about the new copper-extracting technologies, we have good reason to doubt whether the new technologies are applicable to all the copper-extraction regions. If, for example, the new technologies call for special conditions, say very experience devices which are beyond the reach of most factories, then the new technology may not prevail in the industry as a whole. Besides, if the new technology make use of the water forces of large rivers or the solar energy, then areas with few rivers or little sunshine may not be able to set up such technologies even they declare to be economic in electricity expense.
Further more, even if the new technologies are applicable, it is still questionable whether they can really save electricity. As is mentioned above, the new technologies can save 40% electricity especially when the proportion of copper is high. The question is: what is the copper proportion in the core is low? The argument gives no clear information about it. What's more, as we all know, copper is a sort of limited natural resource. The more copper explored, the less it remains. When the total proportion of copper in ore declined to a very low percent, electricity needed may increase so dramatically that the new technologies may be of little effect to reduce the total amount of electricity consumption. Therefore, without taking these into account, the author's assertion needs to be reconsidered.
In addition, if we concede that the new technologies are effective in lowing the cost of electricity for copper extraction, the conclusion, that the amount of the electricity used by the whole industry will decline, remains dubious. As for the industry as a whole, it is highly possible that electricity is used in many other ways despite the process of copper extraction. If the copper extracted by the new technologies is not pure enough, other measures may be needed which may cost lots of electricity. Besides, if other steps going along with the new technologies call for much more electricity-say 80% more-- than the old ones, the amount of electricity may increase rather than decline. Without ruling out such and other possibilities, the conclusion is not convincing.
After careful consideration, the author lacks both detailed evidence and precise reasoning to make a sound argument. It can be improved if the author could rule out alternatives mentioned above and provide sufficient evidence to prove that the new technologies are really effective in lowing electricity consumption. |
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