Argument6-10提纲 [Chasing For "6" Score]第四次作业

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6The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
1. over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer不能说明当地人喜欢jazz，也许更多的人是去看热闹，或是别的城市的人参加。
2. The nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. 这一点是值得怀疑的。首先，当地没有jazz club，并不代表当地的酒吧，饭店不放jazz，也许人们更喜欢到这样的地方pastime。其次当地人喜欢Jazz并不代表人们愿意参加Jazz Club，正像arguer指出那样，也许人们更喜欢听radio。
3. arguer做了一个不恰当的推广。全国的数据并不能代表M，人们在jazz上的投入，不仅与人们是否喜欢jazz有关，更重要的与收入有关，论者没有给出这方面的信息。而且，即使当地的人们愿意在jazz上花$1,000per year，并不一定全都花费在jazz club上，也许他们更多的使用来购买CD。
4. jazz musicians live in M,与C Note能否盈利无关，首先这些musicians是否愿意在CN演出我们不知道，即使他们愿意在CN演出，他们是否复合当地人的口味，我们也不知道。
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7The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."
1. 市长的工作并不仅限于治理环境问题，他要发展经济，解调各部门之间的关系，致力于教育等等。在这方面Frank Braun 作为town council比Ann Green更有经验。
2. 全球的环境污染问题都在加重，Clearview的环境质量变差不一定就是因为新增加的企业导致的，也许新增加的企业是一些对环境没有污染的企业，例如software, bank,等等，所以不能说政府没有环保意识。而周边城市的环境质量也会对这个城市造成影响。
3. Frank Braun 是town council 的成员并不说明他不关心环境问题。同样的Ann Green并一定有能力治理好环境污染。
4.医院呼吸疾病病人增多并不一定是因为环境污染造成的。还可能有很多原因：天生的，老化的，冬天气候干燥等等。
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8The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.

"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
1. 是否要兼并这家公司，不仅要看这家公司的营业情况，有没有发展前途，更重要的是两家公司的业务是否相近。如果业务相差很远的话，就会缺乏对被兼并公司的管理经验，这样不会有很高的利润。OI公司的消费者主要是14－25而MF就不一定了。所以两个公司的定位不同，很难达到很好的效果。
2. speaker 列举了去年MF的利润增长情况，就说塔很有潜力是不客观的。一年的时间太短不能给出充分的证据。有可能期间推出了新产品，吸引了大家，当人么对这种产品失去兴趣的时候它的利润可能就要下降。
3 MF是小地方的企业，它的产品也带有地方性，它满足当地人的口味，并不一定满足whole country。所以speaker说把它推广到全国一定能盈利是没有道理的。
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9 The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."
1给学生更高分数的原因是什么，可能是因为要接受学生的评价，教授的教学质量提高了，或者是学生的学习热情提高了，从而学生的平均总成绩上升了。即没有全面分析这项评价的正负面影响。
2什么证据可以表明雇主认为分数贬值？没有调查。况且15年的时间那么长，社会情况变化。
3找工作难的原因不能简单归因于分数贬值，而且不能由于没有邻近的成功就推断是找不到好工作。没是信息表明以前是比邻近的学校好。
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10The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
1.奶厂比10年前多了25%并不意味着真的多了，也许这个地方的居民增加了30%，这样看来，其实人均拥有的奶源是反倒减少了
2. 奶价提高并不意味着农民就能赚更多的钱，也许制奶程序中需要跟先进的设备，奶牛的价格比以前高很多，奶厂现在都在郊区，运进居民生活去运输费就高了很多。等等这些因素都加大了投入成本
3. 即使农民现在赚了许多钱，需要防止他们的过度赢利，也不能说明控制零售价格是有利的途径，也许90%或者更多的奶产品都是通过批发销售的
4.而且这种控制不一定能保证牛乃的低价和足够供应量。因为控制需要人力物力，这些都需要政府花钱，而政府的资金是从税收的来的（也包括了奶厂主交纳的税收）这样，税收增加了价格自然要增加也确保供应商的利益。另外，如果加大了控制，农民有可能因为觉得无利可涂从而减少牛乃的制作，这就不能保证足够的奶供应。