argument134

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这次感觉写得很乱:(


The author claims that new writers should write mystery novels to increase their chances for first-time publication with a larger, prestigious company. To bolster the conclusion, news from the editors of Mystery Writers Magazine and an assumption on an expanding market are provided. However, close scrutiny of these facts and assumptions reveals that some of them lends to unpersuasive facts and ungrounded assumptions.

First, the significantly grown number of mystery novels published in the last two years provided by the editors of Mystery Writer Magazine cannot prove that they will continue growing in the next year. Considering the source of the information, the feasibility of the information is worth doubting. Perhaps the number has not grown in the last two year, let alone the next year. What is more, the significantly growing number properly indicates that the competition in this field has already drastic enough.

Secondly, the author fails to equal growing number of people reading mysteries to an expanding market for mystery novels. Even if I concede that more people read mysteries than any other type of novels as the editors of Mystery Writers Magazine claims, it is entirely possible that those readers of mysteries, most of whom are students, read the novels only in libraries or borrowed from their friends rather than buy one themselves, which would impact little with the market. Or perhaps, the number of mysteries reader decreases in contrast with that before. Since the whole market of novels is not so hot as it is before, total number of novels has greatly declined. Thus, without ruling out more facts that the sales of mysteries have indeed increased, the conclusion is unpersuasive.

Furthermore, assuming that there is an expanding market for mystery novels, no evidences indicates that all publishers will want to increase the number of mystery novels they publish. As almost half of the mystery novels published last year were written by first-time novel writers, the works cannot be proved in great qualities, for which it is entirely possible that readers buy these novels only by curiosity and they would buy any more the next year. If so, the sales of the mystery books might decline, then, based on this, it is not necessary for publishers to increase the number.

To sum up, based on the doubts cited above, new writers should not always write mystery novels for first-time publication. No evidence proves that the sales would increase, and it is of great possibility that not all new writers are fit for mystery stories. To bolster the conclusion, the author has to cite much more information.