argu71求拍 thanks

chaoren1122UID: 2281781

71. Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.

铜在自然中与其他矿物和有价值的金属混合存在于矿石中，而且矿石中铜的比例可能有很大差别。直到最近，从矿石中提取纯铜的唯一方法是通过一种需要大量电力的流程，特别是当矿石中铜的比例比较低的时候。新的铜提取技术在处理同等数量的原矿石时能够比老的方式节省40％的电力，特别是当矿石中铜的比例比较高的时候。因此，我们可以预期铜矿提取工业所用的电力将会显著减少。

1．        前提不被必然保证，既新技术是否确是比老办法用电少。由于炼铜用电与铜矿有关，而论者只是说老办法用电大，尤其是炼铜含量低的矿，而新技术用电比老办法少40%，尤其是炼铜含量高的矿，那么当铜含量相等时，新技术是否能比老办法节约电，节约多少，论者没有提供，所以不能保证成立。新的提炼技术除了在提炼时耗电以外，是否在其他方面耗电，比如管理等等。这样会不会总的耗电量比旧方法高。
2．        新技术的设备是否很高，成本更高。如果新技术的推广还存在困难，没有厂家使用，那么该行业的用电量不会下降。用电量还是存在上升的可能，比如铜矿含量普遍比以前降低，比如产量升高。



WORDS: 430          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-2-7 18:28:13

The auger asserts that the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry will decline significantly, since introducing new copper-extracting technologies. To support his conclusion, the author cites several evidences. At first glance, this conclusion seems somewhat reasonable, however, close scrutiny of each of these facts, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the conclusion.

First, the author provide no sufficient evidence that when processing the same amount of raw ore, the new technologies can use up less electricity than older method. Lacking sufficient evidence, it is entirely possible that, when proportion of copper in the ore is low, the new method use up more electricity than older method, since this argument merely cites that old method required large amounts of electric, while new technology uses less electricity when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Or that the additional electricity needs to be used during the process of new method such as management and operation of the new machine, and in turn, the total amount of electricity used is more than that of old method. Without consider and ruling out other possibilities, the author cannot convince me that the new technologies can save electricity when processing the same amount of raw ore.

Secondly, even assuming that the amount of electricity used by new technology is less than old method when processing the same amount of raw ore, the author commit a fallacy of  hasty generation that the total amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry will decline. However, the author provides no sufficient evidence to support his claim. Perhaps, as the cost of the new technology is so high that no industry wants to introduce it. If so, the total amount of electricity will remain the same as original. Or perhaps, as the efficiency of the process is rising, the total amount of production is correspondently rising. Therefore, the electricity used may be more than before, as the positive correlation between the total amount of electricity and amount of extracted copper. Any of the two scenarios mentioned above is true, the prediction that the amount of electricity will reduced is unwarranted.  

In sum, the conclusion relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the conclusion, the author must provide more sufficient evidence that new technologies can save electricity whatever the proportion of copper compared with old method to process the same amount of raw ore. To better access the conclusion, I would need more information about why the amount of electr

chunpingUID: 2204293

argu 71 不是这个呀~~