Argument147 永不言弃第十六次作业 by stzhao 7#

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 489          TIME: 00:26:45          DATE: 2009-2-22 10:36:20

This argument is well-represented while not well-reasoned. There are some intermediate steps that one could take before jumping to the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. The argument is mainly based on a survey result that video-game players think the most important feature of a video game is lifelike graphics, and due to an extensive advertising campaign the sales will increase in a few months. I find this argument logically flaws in several aspects.
To begin with, the argument fails to provide evidence which prove the survey to be statistical reliable. Whether the video-game players asked are of a large enough amount and contains all age brackets are remain unknown. Perhaps the survey is only conducted to a specific group of people who value the lifelike graphics most while other players may not agree with them. Lack of such evidence the validity of the survey calls into question.
Even if the survey is statistically reliable, the argument has not considered other possible alternative factors that can influence the quality of a video game. Such factors may include plot, sound, maneuverability and so forth. After all, a video game is a combination of all these factors. Just like the well-known Cask Effect shows, any weak factor will cause the video game to be inferior which, obviously is not going to have a good sales.
The argument believes after an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old which is the age-group most likely to play video games will be certainly followed by a dramatically increase in sales which, however, proves to be gratuitous. No evidence shows that a great advertising will lead to a better sales amount. Perhaps the audiences have an antagonistic feeling about advertisings - as I do especially when watching a TV series, or maybe people just do not take it. Besides, even though people 10 to 25 years old is the age-group most likely to play video games, it is a commonsense that people of this age-group has little purchasing power. Maybe there parents are against with video games or maybe Whirlwind's video games are of a high price. Therefore it is entirely possible that this kind of youth are fond of Whirlwind's video games but cannot afford to buy it, which surely will not bring a dramatically increase in sales.
In sum, the argument fails to certify its conclusion that after an extensive advertising campaign directed at people of the most likely play video games age-group sales of Whirlwind's video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To better evaluate this argument I will need to know the integrated quality of Whirlwind's video games and their prices. I will also need to know the reason why Whirlwind's sales have declined over the past two years to judge whether the sales trends is about to be reversed.