0606G同主题写作第四期——argument73

yogurt4UID：198389

0606G同主题写作第四期——argument73

[题目]
The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."

[翻译]
10年前，长期汽车租赁在我们Mohilia国家出现，成为对于汽车完全所有权的一种补充，这种租赁业务的受欢迎度也逐渐增加。过去五年的每一年中，租赁新车的人数都超过了买新车的人数。Mohilia的汽车平均使用时间为6年；因此，如果新车租赁在今年又一次超过购买，有可能大多数驾驶员将会开租来的车而不是私人拥有的车。因此，我们应该把业务重点从出售车辆转向租赁车辆。
其中，outright car ownership里面outright这个词可能比较陌生，我们看看M-W里的解释：
1 archaic   : straight ahead : DIRECTLY
2 : in entirety : COMPLETELY *rejected the proposal outright*
3 : without restraint or reservation *laughed outright*
4 : on the spot : INSTANTANEOUSLY *was killed outright*
5 : without lien or encumbrance *purchased the property outright for cash*
看词条释义，5的意思最贴合题目环境：没有任何法律留置或负担地。简单的说，就是一次付清买车的所有费用，对汽车拥有完全所有权。有的翻译觉得2的意思也可以。其实只要理解了前面所说的意思，这里ouright指什么，问题不大。

[出现频率]
0510G出现1次。解释一下，初衷是鼓励大家讨论难题，毕竟对于每个准备argument的同学来说，整个阿狗题库至少是要全部过上一遍的。没有注意到这个题目只出现了一次，下次我会找一个比较面熟同时又有一点难度的题目:p

[题目分析]
首段自然是指出作者的结论，同样是在题目的最后一句话：
“Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."

好，我们先来梳理一下作者的思路：
1."Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity."
这句话是在交待题目的背景，没有什么好说的，提了ten years ago. 一般在argument练习中，对某个具体时间的出现大都比较敏感，不过在这里好像没有什么大用处。

2." For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. "
这道题难的位置就是6年这个时间概念在题目当中究竟起什么作用。首先，the average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years,这句是作者整个论证的前提，不宜攻击。已经给出了"average"的字眼，那么6年使用时间的数据就包括了各种情况，汽车的质量，路况。。。总之，我们不必深究为什么平均使用年限是6年，而不是5年，或者7年。

再看“it is likely that"的结论是怎么来的：
前面已经说了，过去五年的每一年中，租赁新车的人数都超过了买新车的人数。于是作者做了一个比较极端的假设，就是很多人都在5年前买了新车。而在接着的5年当中，这些人再没有买新车，所以买新车的人数少于租赁新车的人数。但是平均下来，一辆新车只能开6年，所以撑到底再开一年，无论如何5年前买车的人都要在this year换车(past five years+this year，正好6年）。如果最开始买新车的人，在换车的时候同样选择了买车，而不是租赁汽车，那么买车人数的最高峰，就应该出现在今年。在买车人数最高的今年，还是出现租赁汽车人数更多的情况，那么：
“It is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. "

如果不是出于极端的考虑，即买新车的人数的零零散散的分布在过去的５年中，或者５年前买新车的人在今年选择了租赁汽车，那么过去５年／今年，买新车的人数少于租赁汽车的情况，同样能让作者得出租赁汽车越来越受欢迎，同时有可能带来更大利润的结论。

分析了作者的思路，就来看一下我们写作的时候该怎样攻击：
1.题目最大的一个漏洞就是认为一个人只开一辆车，而车的价钱相同。
我曾经在别的地方写过，一个租车的人租个便宜的2手车，一个买车的人买了10辆奔驰,两者的利润能比么？整篇argument里，没有半点关于盈利的数据比较。就是两辆相同的车，一般来说，卖出去的价钱也比租出去的价钱高很多吧。

2. 即使一个人只开一辆车, 大家或许仍旧会在今年买新车。
题目里面说if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year,这毕竟只是一种假设，完全可能出现事实违背假设的情况，大家又不跟风，还是买新车。或者，租赁汽车的人存够钱了，又转回来买车。

３.即使买新车的人数减少了，不买新车也不一定非要去租赁汽车，开２手车不行么？题目没有给任何关于２手车的信息，那么作者认为买车的人都去租车，所以租赁汽车更有利润的结论不成立。

４.即使人大家都去租赁汽车了，未必租赁汽车就比卖汽车更盈利。
首先，注意题目中说的都是 leasing new cars.有可能大家都爱租新车，租了一年就换，去租别的新车。这些新车从哪里来，还不是car dealership卖出来的。如果大家都只租新车的话，那么被租过的旧车就没有市场了，中间所费的成本，甚至可能高于一年出租的利润。

5. 贸然转化经营方向，customer loyalty, 公司经验不足，市场饱和，竞争问题。。。等等。总之，就是不一定赚钱。

分析就到这里，老样子，大家还有什么想法，欢迎跟贴讨论。

[gter文章参考]
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mo ... ighlight=argument73
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mo ... ighlight=argument73

[诚心推荐]
稍微总结一下上次argument59的同主题，总的来说大家还是写的很不错的。
其中有些毛病，特别是刚开始写argument的同学比较容易犯，我在这里集体推荐些好帖子给大家，尤其是新手：
开头是否需要restate原题：
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=134092
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mo ... &extra=page%3D1
怎样安排argument的攻击顺序：
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mo ... ge=1&highlight=
模版问题：
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=175162
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=199905


最后提醒一下，请不要在这里贴自己的习作,请将习作发表在坛子里面,然后将链接贴进来.除了习作链接之外,更欢迎大家把对于题目的想法拿出来讨论,让大家分享你的独特见地。讨论提纲和积极互改的同学的习作，将得到斑竹的优先修改:)

[ 本帖最后由 yogurt4 于 2006-2-9 22:38 编辑 ]

cloudwalkerUID：2190010

1.对调查的可信度进行攻击。
2。指出租车和卖车统计方法的不同，因而数据可能存在漏洞。
3。没有证据表明租车的利润会高过卖车的利润，因而结论有问题。

http://edu.gter.net/bbs/viewthre ... &extra=page%3D1

yogurt4UID：198389

不好意思,中途请假,这个帖子也没有怎么看
回头等这一期argument同主题出来了,我再来整这个
里面直接发习作的帖子我会分割出去
考完了人的作文先放一边,就这样

xianshuUID：2154071

我也写了篇，多多指教噢。
https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthre ... &extra=page%3D1

clearriverUID：2189101

Any suggestions are welcome!

clearriverUID：2189101

On the surface, the statement of the arguer seems to be sound suggestion, but a carefully scrutiny of the statement, we can find that the arguer does not give us any data of the profit of the companies which lease car and do not take the second hand cars deal into the account . They are all important factors that should be referred when the company wants to change his business.
  first, the a car can be used about twenty or thirty years and the maintenance cost will be increasing with the age of the car, the arguer do not give the crucial details who afford the maintenance cost and the companies who business the leasing cars may lost a lot of money at last for high uphold cost. Also the arguer only lists the number of the cars and does not give any data of the gain which is the most important parameters for a company. The phenomenon that the number of the cars which were leased may be bigger than the number of the new cars which were sold in the past five years does means that the companies which lease cars can earn more money than the ones that sell cars. If a car that was leased can only bring the companies one hundred dollars while a car that was sold in the past can give the companies five hundred dollars, the companies which sell cars can have bigger profit than the companies which lease the same number of cars. So the choice of selling cars may be still the best choice for the company.
  Second, the arguer only tells us the number of new cars which are sold or leased, but do not take the second hand cars deal into the consideration. There may be many young men or girls who like to lease new ones for only one year and then change another new one. so there will be many second hand cars in the market which causes the number of the new car leased surpasses than the number of the new car sold because the mature may go to buy the second hand car s instead of the new ones, if the arguers take the second hand cars deal number into account the number of cars which are sold may be bigger than the number of the leased cars, and the profit of the sold cars will be a good choice to the companies and the companies can earn more money.
  In all, the evidences that the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars of the arguer can not be sufficient support the decision of changing the business of the company to leasing cars. They should take more factors into consideration.

禾慕繁星UID：194496

原文逻辑：1．自从十年前开始有租车以来，租车就越来越受欢迎——因为过去五年中的每一年，租新车

的人数都超过了买新车的人数。2．因为汽车的平均年龄是6年，所以，如果今年租车人数超过买车人数，

那么，租车就会成为主流。——结论，要改变卖车为租车。

分析：1，关于popularity的论据一定有问题，但是想了好久总是很绕，说不明白。大家基本上都想到了，租车的人多，可能是租的次数多，绝对人数不一定多。但是，就像之前有位网友提到的，只要是租出去一次，就是一笔利润，和人数没有太大关系。后来我想，可以从租期这个破绽去切入。因为文中只是说long-term car leasing,那么，这个long-term是否有限制呢？几个月，几年？既然没有说清楚，就有懈可击。完全可以假设，人们喜欢租新车（文中也提到是leasing new cars)，所以一年租一次车。同时，很有可能，愿意租车的人群相对来说，规模变化不大，比如大概只有100个人愿意租车，这些人每年都去租车，所以，租车的市场规模就维持在100辆左右。而至于买车的人，比如说，每年只有90个人买车——符合文中每年买车人数小于租车人数的事实，但五年下来，买车的人数就有450人，也就是，卖车的市场规模达到450辆。那么，租车就没有优势了。
2．租车的average age是6年，这点肯定也是有漏洞的。平均年龄表示这辆车已经行驶了多少年，与其寿命无关。作者之所以认为第六年后主流是开租来的车，他的逻辑是这样的：首先，他以为平均年龄可以代表平均寿命，也就是说，他认为一般车开到6年以后就要报废了。其次，他是这样进行比较的：到了今年，6年前买的车都要报废，所以不管6年前买车的人多还是租车的人多，都一概清零，无需讨论；从五年前开始，每年租车的人比买车的人多，所以只要今年维持这种趋势，租车的人就要超过买车的人了。这个推理实在很荒谬！批驳起来应该不难，一个是平均年龄与平均寿命的问题，另一个就是上一段中市场规模的问题。
我觉得这篇的难点也就是上两个问题很难理清思路，而且它们之间也有交叉，是否可以两点结合起来说？
3．市场前景的问题。就算到今年，租车的人还是大于买车人数，有什么证据可以保证这种趋势持续下去呢？也许明年开始，就有很多人买车了。这点大家基本上都想到了，挺简单的。
4．利润的问题。买车和租车究竟是很不一样的。第一，租车一般还要提供维修、保养之类的，经营费用庞大；第二，卖车的价格一般比租金高得多；第三，就是第一段里提到的，如果大家都愿意租新车，那么，租过一年的车没人愿意租了，怎么处理？综上，租车还是不如卖车。

啊~~~~~~~~~这题真是费脑子，想了好久好久，到现在自己才比较满意了。我想如果这样论述，应该就能够抓住题目的主要错误了吧！
https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthre ... &extra=page%3D1

[ 本帖最后由 禾慕繁星 于 2006-2-26 12:42 编辑 ]

nicky_bide_panUID：2130505

https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthre ... &extra=page%3D1

欢迎拍，请留链，必回拍，同努力！

1)        从售车到租车的转变不完全取决于市场，还要考虑其是否适合代理商
2)        即使转变是合适的，还要考虑利润是否合适，毕竟市场不代表利润
3)        人数不代表市场，车数或说销售额才代表市场
4)        人数不一定会按预期的增加

tonysoongUID：199544

对不起，发错了

tonysoongUID：199544

ISSUE 36 the greatness of individuals can be decided only by those who live after them, not by their contemporaries. 511字
提纲：总的来说就是个人和集体都重要，两者互不可分。
In a modern society, there is no denying the fact that whether the greatness of individuals can be decided by those who live after them as well as their contemporaries is a heated debate over a long period of time. According to the speaker, only though the individuals after them can their greatness be decided. Obviously, people will find it is almost impossible to come to the agreement on this highly controversial issue. In the last analysis, I am declined to support the opinion that the contemporaries as well as the people as those who live after them play an equally important role in the decision of the greatness of the individuals. The reasons are listed as follows.

In the first place, obviously, it is the people who live after them that can appraised from a relatively fair view and a wide or broad perspective. Take Galileo for example, when he was first exposed to his new theory-the sun-centered or heliocentric theory, which is absolutely controversial to the theory of Aristotle's which has rooted in the people's mind for centuries, the people and the church at that time can not understand his theory properly, so Church intend to send him in to prison. However, after centuries, the theory is so well known that even a six-year-old child can know it. The example illustrates clearly that in some special period of time, the greatness of individuals can not be decided correctly, because the opinions they held at that time is obviously limited. So though the people who live after them can the people being decided receive a fair and wide evaluation.

In the second place, however, only though the decision of the contemporaries can the individuals who are decided know what he has done in the past, and what he has to do in the future! Epitomize in my experience, as I grow up, there are more and more people around me, including the old, the young, the men and the women, although we are from different backgrounds, diverse culture, and instinct spirit, one thing is certain, that is we can find weakness or faults each other, by which we can amend them and turn better, take a tree as an example, if you want it to turn taller, you have to cut the vice-branches down. The vice-branches here equal to the faults. To conclude, the contemporaries can make the people receive much bigger greatness.
In sum, it is very unlikely that people will never be able to arrive at the same conclusion on this controversial issue, due to their different experiences and conflicting values. Nevertheless, public awareness of the various dimensions of the issue discussed in the above argument will certainly contribute to the thorough understanding of the problem.

hudou5522UID：2135832

我第一次来，发现大家的ARGUE水平很高啊

xuhaimengUID：2116891

占座!!!

PsychocandyUID：171159

原帖由 yogurt4 于 2006-2-13 02:08 发表
不知道你的意思是不是30楼的forevercoco的一样,我又梳理了一下:
1.The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years:
单这一句话还是不可以攻击的,陈述事实,
但是可以拿来说明一个问题,可能车子还没有报废就没有再被使用了,说明新车销售的很好,有利可图.

2.极端假设的问题
service life比6年长只是一种可能.可能更长,如上面第一点的分析,但也有可能相等.
但是如果我不做这种极端假设,过去5年每年购买的车数量差不多,为什么作者要等待this year的数据呢? 5年当中头一年买车的人,在今年也都买了车,人数上有什么特别的地方?

恩,欢迎继续讨论^^

我也认为,
平均年龄是六年是作者提供的事实,不能攻击.

我的意思是我们应该这样理解:
平均车龄是六岁说明这些正在跑的车里面一部分车比六岁要老,另一部分车比六岁年轻,所以平均起来是六岁.(必然是这种情况,因为不可能所有跑的车都是六岁,肯定有比六岁小的,那就必然有比六岁老的)
可以肯定的是已经有一些车过了六岁仍然在跑.
但不知道是不是那些现在比六岁年轻的车是到什么时候被弃置不用,那是将来的事情.
如果要提供关于平均的使用年限的话,那数据必定要依靠现在已经被弃置不跑的车,而与仍然在使用的车没有关系(因为它们什么时候被弃置是将来的事情).我们就认为这个平均使用年限未知.

我们可以攻击的是作者等待第六年的数据是没有用的,提供不了有用的信息.
他不能等待到了第六年会出现很多车被弃置不用的局面.
即使假设很一大批车都是过去五年的第一年购买的,
他们到了第六年就是六岁,
那也不能期待它们就马上被弃置不用的局面.
现在的情况是已经有一些车比六岁老仍然在跑,
将来的情况还不知道.

使用年限未知是可以反驳作者的.
但是,根据常识一定可以推出平均使用年限也就是被弃置不用的平均年龄比六年长而不可能等于六年.
比如中国人平均寿命是70岁,
那所有中国人在某一个时间点上的平均年龄一定是小于70岁的.
所以我们能推出一辆Mohilia的车到了六岁,
还没到被弃置不用的平均年龄.
但我们不知道车主是否想弃置这辆车.

[ 本帖最后由 Psychocandy 于 2006-2-14 01:00 编辑 ]

wolfgangUID：2113851

https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthre ... e%3D1#pid1768102152

我的链接，谢谢各位了！请留链方便回拍！

不过我攻击了连续用6年这个判断了。

[ 本帖最后由 wolfgang 于 2006-2-14 00:38 编辑 ]