Argument147 请拍砖-7月31日广州考，有同考的XDJM吗？

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 371          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-6-29

According to the editorial, the arguer fails to provide concrete evidence and logical deduction to explain why he concludes the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. Several fundamental fallacies exist in his argument.

Firstly, the arguer sited a survey about the favorite feature of video games to support his opinion. No detailed narrative about the survey could be found in the argument. We cannot be convinced by its credibility since the survey might not be a scientific one. How many samples the survey reached? What's the demographic of the samples? Are they 10 to 25 years old? How the question was asked, in a suggesting way or not?

Secondly, even the survey result is credible, that is, the lifelike graphics are welcomed by the players, the arguer still cannot convince us that it would be the key driver of the sales increase of Whirlwind video games. Mentioned in the article, the lifelike graphics require the most up-to-date computers. Do most of the video-game players have those kinds of advanced computers? How many percent of the players can afford such a premium technology? Even though the most up-to-date computers are popular among the player, which is not realistic, we do not know the market competition of the video game products that can provide lifelike graphics. If there are already many choices of those games, Whirlwind is facing fierce competition so that the increase in sales can not be easily achieved.

Thirdly, the arguer mentioned the advertising campaign which directed is people 10 to 25 years old as one of the supporting evidences to his conclusion. Unfortunately, it is still not well reasoned. There is no information to prove that how many percent of young people of 10 to 25 years old prefer to play video games, and how many of them prefer to play video game with lifelike graphics. Moreover, can they make the purchasing decision by themselves? Maybe a 25-year-old man can, but we cannot assert a 10-year-old boy could.

In sum, the argument suffers at least three key flaws. We can not draw a conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase with the reasons mentioned in the argument.


7月31日广州考，有同考的XDJM吗？

第二片习作，字数比上一篇A78多了100，本来有时间检查的，接了个美国长途电话，匆匆结尾了。语言比较随意，下次要多用点高分词汇。

请指教！