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The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
In this argument, the author suggests that the town council should decrease the number of rented mopeds to some extent in order to attain a proportional reduction of accidents generated by mopeds and pedestrians. However, vague evidence renders this conclusion unpersuasive and groundless.
In the first place, the author insensibly attributes the cause of accidents to mopeds while in his or her words two objects are mentioned: mopeds and pedestrians. Obviously this argument lacks credibility when one considers that pedestrians could also be an important factor. It is entirely possible that people walking in the streets violate the traffic rules and induce the accidents. Moreover, given the fact that population in this town grows more than before, we have strong reason to argue that accidents could result from the growing pedestrians rather than mopeds. Besides, the traffic status in this town might possess many problems and some potential danger could not be eliminated unless the roads and streets are improved or rebuilt.
In the second place, even mopeds in this town should take the main responsibility for accidents, again the author easily attributes these trouble to the mopeds rented by the six mopeds rental companies while the personal ones are overlooked. Consider, if the number of private mopeds is much larger than the number of rented ones, which might be the prime criminal in the accidents? Thus, without any information about whether the residents own personal mopeds and the amount of them, it is unfair to judge like what the author says.
In the third place, even mopeds rented are the causer of the accidents, the author should not be so optimistic that through the limiting strategy the number of accidents would sharply diminished. Meanwhile, Torseau town's experience could not be a direct reference. On the one hand, it is entirely possible that people are likely to buy their own mopeds while the council enforces a moped rental limit and this might be a potential threaten to the traffic. On the other hand, we are not informed whether Torseau council had carried on other measures such as improvement of roads and streets, stress on traffic codes and the like, to ensure the limitation of moped rental is effective. If it is true, how effective this limitation policy alone would leave many doubts.
To sum up, this argument is not convincing in that all of the evidence presented are far too vague to lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To be a better argument, more relative information mentioned above should provided and other possible scenarios should also be taken into account.
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