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argument 22
题目
22The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."
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正文
In the argument, the speaker concludes that the company should build a lot more houses priced above $150,000 on the basis of a series of data and specious consumptions. Actually, the conclusion is rather ungrounded in several respects.
To begin with, the data cited in the argument might be unsubstantiated in any of the following reasons. First it is a nationwide trend of the increase of the price of high-priced houses over those lower-priced ones. Without any evidence supporting a simple trend in Steel City, it is just as likely that the trend is in the opposite direction. Secondly, the the more sales of the expensive houses does not necessarily mean more profits than the lower-priced ones. Thirdly, the increase of population does not indicate the willingness of consuming those houses. For instance, it is entirely possible that the change in population is due to more workers coming from disadvantaged places, which means that they cannot afford those houses.
Even assuming that expensive houses would be profitable in Steel City(SC), the speaker still omits the costs of building such a large sum of expensive houses. The profits not only depend on the potential market, but also have much to do with the cost of land and advertisement. Lack of sufficient investigations, we cannot deny the possibilities that there have already been several big companies long-establishing in SC doing business of real estate, that people will be attracted by other companies' advertisements and prices, and that people do not satisfy the environment of the location of houses provided by the company. In fact, it has not been mentioned in the argument whether the people can afford those houses or whether those who are living in lower-priced houses would change better houses. Without considering such possibilities, the speaker fails to convince me that the president's recommendation is an available one.
Further more, the second suggestion made by the speaker is inappropriate. On one hand, it is not necessary to hire more workers to build more houses this year. As we all know, the modern technology plays an important role in construction, and can do better and faster than men. On the other hand, the speaker does not list out any evidence suggesting they could sell out at least most of the houses this year. Nor does he mention the sales of the houses last year.
Finally, the speaker has not taken into consideration the current financial situation of the company. How much should the company invest in it to avoid financial crisis? Where should the company choose to build those houses to maximize the profits? What percentage of the investment allocated to the lower-priced houses?
In sum, the speaker makes such a conclusion because of the nationwide trend that may not apply to SC and the increasing population and income. Meanwhile he does not compare the advantages and disadvantages of the investment. Before better evaluating the decision, he should provide a more sufficient investigation about the probability of profits. |
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