[a习作temp] argument147,高频第四篇，我在砖头中寻找呼吸的空间 [复制链接]

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发表于 2005-3-22 19:44:47 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

argument147:
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
'Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.'
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In the above argument, the author recommends that the sales of Whirlwind video games would increase dramatically in the next few months. The editor arrives at the conclusion by citing the survey of video-game players which suggests a preference on games with lifelike graphics. To enhance the assertion, the arguer refers to the advertising campaign made by Whirlwind. Nevertheless, this argument is based on some groundless assumptions so that it is not so convincing as it appears.

The major problem with this argument is that the reliability and representative of the survey which the assertion depend on are open to doubt. Therefore it is suspicious that the video games will become more and more popular in the future. First, it is not concerned about the number and ratio of people involved in this survey. Thus we have no idea whether the result of the survey can be considered as the general tendency of the majority. Moreover, there is no evidence to show that the samples are randomly chosen, so the responses of those samples are entirely possible a coincidence. Furthermore, we are not informed where the survey is conducted. As a result, the author fails to establish the links between the survey and the business of Whirlwind. It is totally possible that the situation of the region where the survey is made is different from the area where Whirlwind provides its service. Under this circumstance, it is nonsensical to consider the survey as a proof to the conclusion.

Provided that the result of this survey is believable, the author takes it for granted that the advertisement will attract a large amount of customers in the next few months. However, there is no information about the attitude of the customers toward the advertising campaign. Whether they show much interest on the new games or even give no response is not mentioned. Even if people really represent curiosity on the new games, there is no casual relationship between the interest and the action of buying. Moreover, the advertisement is designed directed at people 10 to 25 years old who may not have a steady income to support the living by themselves. There is no evidence in this argument to demonstrate that these people are most like to play video games. Even if we assume that they are indeed fascinated with video games, they probably can not afford the high cost of the up-to date computers which is necessary for these games. Then there is no reason to expect an increase in the sale of the video games.

Assuming that the effect of advertisement is remarkable, we cannot arrive at the conclusion that the games of Whirlwind will sell well. Taking into account that there are many competitors in the market and Whirlwind suffered a decrease in sale, we can imagine that Whirlwind will probably be defeated again by its rivals. They may also develop similar types of game which contain better quality so that the customers choose their products again. What’s more, no one can predict what will happen in a few months. So it is arbitrary to get an absolute conclusion.

All in all, this argument lacks credibility. To further justify the assertion, the arguer has to provide more information of the survey and demonstrate the casual relationship between the advertisement and the sale of the games. Otherwise, we may not accept his conclusion.

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发表于 2005-3-22 20:32:39 |只看该作者

In the above argument, the author recommends(concludes?) that the sales of Whirlwind video games would increase dramatically in the next few months. The editor arrives at the conclusion by citing the survey of video-game players which suggests a preference on games with lifelike graphics. To enhance the assertion, the arguer refers to the advertising campaign made by Whirlwind. Nevertheless, this argument is based on some groundless assumptions so that it is not so convincing as it appears

The major problem with this argument is that the reliability and representative of the survey which the assertion depend on are open to doubt. Therefore it is suspicious that the video games will become more and more popular in the future. First, it is not concerned about the number and ratio of people involved in this survey. Thus we have no idea whether the result of the survey can be considered as the general tendency of the majority. Moreover, there is no evidence to show that the samples are randomly chosen, so the responses of those samples are entirely possible a coincidence.(可以展开一下，加个从句说明是那些喜欢这类游戏的人回答了survey) Furthermore, we are not informed where the survey is conducted. As a result, the author fails to establish the links between the survey and the business of Whirlwind.(as a result...这句可以不需要，反而影响连贯性) It is totally possible that the situation of the region where the survey is made is different from the area where Whirlwind provides its service. Under this circumstance, it is nonsensical to consider the survey as a proof to the conclusion.

Provided that the result of this survey is believable, the author takes it for granted that the advertisement will attract a large amount of customers in the next few months. However, there is no information about the attitude of the customers toward the advertising campaign. Whether they show much interest on the new games or even give no response is not mentioned. Even if people really represent curiosity on the new games, there is no casual relationship between the interest and the action of buying. Moreover, the advertisement is designed directed at people 10 to 25 years old who may not have a steady income to support the living by themselves. There is no evidence in this argument to demonstrate that these people are most like to play video games. Even if we assume that they are indeed fascinated with video games, they probably can not afford the high cost of the up-to date computers which is necessary for these games. Then there is no reason to expect an increase in the sale of the video games.

Assuming that the effect of advertisement is remarkable, we cannot arrive at the conclusion that the games of Whirlwind will sell well. Taking into account that there are many competitors in the market and Whirlwind suffered a decrease in sale, we can imagine that(可以不要we can imagine that) Whirlwind will probably be defeated again by its rivals. They may also develop similar types of game which contain better quality so that the customers choose their products again. What’s more, no one can predict what will happen in a few months. So it is arbitrary to get an absolute conclusion.

All in all, this argument lacks credibility. To further justify the assertion, the arguer has to provide more information of the survey and demonstrate the casual relationship between the advertisement and the sale of the games(建议改为and demonstrate that the advertisement indeed can increase the sales of the games). Otherwise, we may not accept his conclusion.

是限时的吗？总体看来这篇写得还是很好的，各种可能考虑得很充分，论证也没有什么问题，几乎没有语法错误；只是个别地方显得比较繁琐，反而逻辑不清楚，比如"Furthermore, we are not informed where the survey is conducted. As a result, the author fails to establish the links between the survey and the business of Whirlwind.It is totally possible that the situation of the region where the survey is made is different from the area where Whirlwind provides its service."as a result...这句可以不需要，反而影响连贯性

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