[同主题写作] 0606G同主题写作第四期——argument73 [复制链接]

禾慕繁星
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46楼

发表于 2006-2-26 09:54:12 |只看该作者

原文逻辑：1．自从十年前开始有租车以来，租车就越来越受欢迎——因为过去五年中的每一年，租新车

的人数都超过了买新车的人数。2．因为汽车的平均年龄是6年，所以，如果今年租车人数超过买车人数，

那么，租车就会成为主流。——结论，要改变卖车为租车。

分析：1，关于popularity的论据一定有问题，但是想了好久总是很绕，说不明白。大家基本上都想到了，租车的人多，可能是租的次数多，绝对人数不一定多。但是，就像之前有位网友提到的，只要是租出去一次，就是一笔利润，和人数没有太大关系。后来我想，可以从租期这个破绽去切入。因为文中只是说long-term car leasing,那么，这个long-term是否有限制呢？几个月，几年？既然没有说清楚，就有懈可击。完全可以假设，人们喜欢租新车（文中也提到是leasing new cars)，所以一年租一次车。同时，很有可能，愿意租车的人群相对来说，规模变化不大，比如大概只有100个人愿意租车，这些人每年都去租车，所以，租车的市场规模就维持在100辆左右。而至于买车的人，比如说，每年只有90个人买车——符合文中每年买车人数小于租车人数的事实，但五年下来，买车的人数就有450人，也就是，卖车的市场规模达到450辆。那么，租车就没有优势了。
2．租车的average age是6年，这点肯定也是有漏洞的。平均年龄表示这辆车已经行驶了多少年，与其寿命无关。作者之所以认为第六年后主流是开租来的车，他的逻辑是这样的：首先，他以为平均年龄可以代表平均寿命，也就是说，他认为一般车开到6年以后就要报废了。其次，他是这样进行比较的：到了今年，6年前买的车都要报废，所以不管6年前买车的人多还是租车的人多，都一概清零，无需讨论；从五年前开始，每年租车的人比买车的人多，所以只要今年维持这种趋势，租车的人就要超过买车的人了。这个推理实在很荒谬！批驳起来应该不难，一个是平均年龄与平均寿命的问题，另一个就是上一段中市场规模的问题。
我觉得这篇的难点也就是上两个问题很难理清思路，而且它们之间也有交叉，是否可以两点结合起来说？
3．市场前景的问题。就算到今年，租车的人还是大于买车人数，有什么证据可以保证这种趋势持续下去呢？也许明年开始，就有很多人买车了。这点大家基本上都想到了，挺简单的。
4．利润的问题。买车和租车究竟是很不一样的。第一，租车一般还要提供维修、保养之类的，经营费用庞大；第二，卖车的价格一般比租金高得多；第三，就是第一段里提到的，如果大家都愿意租新车，那么，租过一年的车没人愿意租了，怎么处理？综上，租车还是不如卖车。

啊~~~~~~~~~这题真是费脑子，想了好久好久，到现在自己才比较满意了。我想如果这样论述，应该就能够抓住题目的主要错误了吧！
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... &extra=page%3D1

[ 本帖最后由禾慕繁星于 2006-2-26 12:42 编辑 ]

我和我骄傲的倔强，握紧双手绝对不放！

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clearriver
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47楼

发表于 2006-2-27 15:05:00 |只看该作者

On the surface, the statement of the arguer seems to be sound suggestion, but a carefully scrutiny of the statement, we can find that the arguer does not give us any data of the profit of the companies which lease car and do not take the second hand cars deal into the account . They are all important factors that should be referred when the company wants to change his business.
  first, the a car can be used about twenty or thirty years and the maintenance cost will be increasing with the age of the car, the arguer do not give the crucial details who afford the maintenance cost and the companies who business the leasing cars may lost a lot of money at last for high uphold cost. Also the arguer only lists the number of the cars and does not give any data of the gain which is the most important parameters for a company. The phenomenon that the number of the cars which were leased may be bigger than the number of the new cars which were sold in the past five years does means that the companies which lease cars can earn more money than the ones that sell cars. If a car that was leased can only bring the companies one hundred dollars while a car that was sold in the past can give the companies five hundred dollars, the companies which sell cars can have bigger profit than the companies which lease the same number of cars. So the choice of selling cars may be still the best choice for the company.
  Second, the arguer only tells us the number of new cars which are sold or leased, but do not take the second hand cars deal into the consideration. There may be many young men or girls who like to lease new ones for only one year and then change another new one. so there will be many second hand cars in the market which causes the number of the new car leased surpasses than the number of the new car sold because the mature may go to buy the second hand car s instead of the new ones, if the arguers take the second hand cars deal number into account the number of cars which are sold may be bigger than the number of the leased cars, and the profit of the sold cars will be a good choice to the companies and the companies can earn more money.
  In all, the evidences that the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars of the arguer can not be sufficient support the decision of changing the business of the company to leasing cars. They should take more factors into consideration.

Go Go Go!

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clearriver
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48楼

发表于 2006-2-27 15:06:05 |只看该作者

Any suggestions are welcome!

Go Go Go!

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xianshu
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49楼

发表于 2006-2-27 18:40:42 |只看该作者

我也写了篇，多多指教噢。
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... &extra=page%3D1

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