本帖最后由 xiesisiminerva 于 2012-8-7 17:04 编辑
The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Movies Galore, a chain of
video rental stores.
“In order to reverse the recent decline in our profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Movies Galore’s ten video rental stores. Since we are famous for our special bargains, raising our rental prices is not a viable way to improve profits. Last month our store in downtown Marston significantly decreased its operating expenses by closing at 6:00 P.M. rather than 9:00 P.M. and by reducing its stock by eliminating all movies released more than five yearsago. Therefore, in order to increase profits without jeopardizing our reputation for offering great movies at low prices, we recommend implementing similar changes in our other nine Movies Galore stores.”
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be addressed in order to decide whether implementing the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result and explain how the answers to those questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
结论：implementing similar changes in our other nine Movies Galore stores
前提：
1 In order to reverse the recent decline in our profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Movies Galore’s ten video rental stores.
2 in order to increase profits without jeopardizing our reputation for offering great movies at low prices
支持点：
1.Since we are famous for our special bargains, raising our rental prices is not a viable way to improve profits.
2.Last month our store in downtown Marston significantly decreased its operating expenses by closing at 6:00 P.M. rather than 9:00 P.M.
3. and by reducing its stock by eliminating all movies released more than five years ago.
1可以学习的语言用红字
2逻辑思路用绿字
3攻击各攻击点用篮字
score 6
One question which needs to be addressed before implementing the recommendation is whether there are not other ways to improve profits besides cutting operatingexpenses. Without proof, the author decides, first, that there are only two viable options for increasing the profits of Movies Galore: raising rental prices, and cuttingcosts. （攻击1：可供选择条件太少）He rules out the first course, and hence claims the second option must bechosen. But it seems there may be alternative methods of increasing profits, such asinitiating advertising campaigns or closing unprofitable Movies Galore locations.Even if it is granted that （让步，引出下一个攻击点）there are only two options for increasing profitability — cutting costs, and raising rental prices — one might wonder why raising rental prices is so unthinkable. （攻击2：为什么提高价格就不行呢？) The author implies that because 提供文中的支持点1并改写Movies Galore is famous for special bargains, raising the rental prices would eliminate this competitive advantage and decrease profitability. However, in making this conclusion, he makes several assumptions without considering questions that need to be addressed. （驳斥支持点1）First, he assumes that there is no room to raise current prices and yet maintain lower prices than competitors. One would need to ask if prices could be increased slightly, while keeping them cheap. Even if there is no room for such a strategy, the author assumes that Movies Galore’s reputation for bargain pricing would evaporate if they increased their prices slightly. Perhaps such a reputation would be widespread enough to persist despite a slight increase in prices. And thirdly, even if the reputation for bargains would be eliminated by an increase in prices, the author assumes that Movies Galore cannot change course and be successful in some other way. Perhaps it could instead become known as the store with the friendliest employees. Perhaps it already is, and the author is wrong to believe that a causal relationship between bargain prices and success exists, when the real cause of Movies Galore’s good reputation is entirely independent of its prices. The author needs to answer these questions to convince us that profits are caused by bargains, and not by the other factors that may be involved. （这一段，连续的even if... the author assumes that...使得论证层层递进，而perhaps 引出自己的假设，最后一击便是总结，the author needs to answer these questions to convince us that...) Another question that needs to be raised is whether or not the downtown Marston store is truly analogous to the other nine Movies Galore stores. (对第二个支持点进行攻击1）The author seems to assume that because the cost-cutting measures worked at the Marston location, it will work at the others, but this is far from clear.（点出逻辑错误：随意归因） Perhaps （又是一个perhaps 引出观点）the patrons of the other Movies Galore locations would resent such changes in the hours and stock of their local stores. Perhaps the most important question that needs to be asked is whether the Marston location’s changes truly increased profitability. （第二个支持点攻击2）The author writes that the Marston store decreased operating expenses by closing earlier and cutting its stock, but he makes no mention of increased profitability. It is quite possible that the Marston location’s profits decreased as a result of their cost cutting, and this is a question that needs to be addressed. The author then jumps to the conclusion that（攻击草率得出结论） taking similar measures would increase profitability at other locations, though such a connection has not even been established at the Marston store. Even if the cost-cutting measures increased profitability at the Marston store last month (and a causal relationship, though presumably assumed, is still far from evident), there is no guarantee that such measures would continue to increase profitability over time. One would need to ask: （换一种方式补充文中的漏洞）Why not observe how the Marston location’s action affect profitability over several months, before implementing such sweeping changes at every store? A single month is a very short time span, and the habits of customers may change slowly. As word gets around that the Marston store has cut their hours and their selection, they may in fact jeopardize their reputation for offering “great movies at low prices.” After all, the name of the franchise is Movies Galore, and by drastically reducing the available selection, they may alienate their customer base.（等了好久，终于攻击了支持点3.3的提出是和前面时间短看不到顾客群损失的后果相联系）非常有层次感哦 If, as mentioned above, Movies Galore is famous for more than its great bargains — if customers prefer Movies Galore because of its selections, as well — then such a move may drastically reduce profits over time. It seems extremely rash to implement such a new and relatively untried strategy at every Movies Galore location, before the effects can be fully observed and interpreted.
作者的行文风格其实很清楚，善于用层层递进的手法将攻击点慢慢展开，最后一击致命，使得论证丰富。
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发表于 2012-8-7 16:10:12
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发表于 2012-8-7 17:25:50
1.why港大 2.why MIPA3.时政类问题
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