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rainlanny
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发表于 2002-12-17 09:24:25 |只看该作者

最初由 terryshen 发表
[B]Sales of Better Bran have declined in recent years, for reasons that management has now identified. First, Better Bran is a cereal with high sugar content, and recent research studies have found that most consumers say they are concerned about the amount of sugar added to their breakfast cereal. Second, the price of Better Bran has increased by 5 percent in each of the last three years. Therefore, to increase our company's profits we need to reduce the amount of sugar in Better Bran and lower Better Bran's price."[/B]

First, the arguer provide recent research studies to support his conclusion, but he does not indicate the participants of these research programs. It is very likely that all the people interviewed these studies are very fat, and they have to limit their ingestion of suga. But others, a lot of normal citizens who ocuppy nearly 95% of the population do not have to limit their ingestion of sugar. Another possiblity is that only a few people who are interested in reducing the amount of sugar have responsed these studies.
Second, the arguer assumes that two events occurred simultaneously have somr causal relationship. Although the price increase and the declination of sales are simultaneous, the arguer could not surely conclude that the declination was caused by price increase. It is very possible that the average wage has increased by 30 percent in each of the last three years, and the relative price of Better Bran has lower and lower. It is also likely that there is another cereal food compnay whose products are more delicious than Better Bran, and more and more people trun to by that products instead of buying Better Bran.

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angeikim
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沙发

发表于 2002-12-18 01:10:05 |只看该作者

最初由 terryshen 发表
[B] Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."

怎么反驳？
好像The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars没有问题。难道要针对The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years?
[/B]

in this passage, the speaker assumes that since people tend to lease cars in Mohilia, we should switch our business from selling cars to leasing them.

in the first sentence, the author mentions long-term car leasing, but in the following passage the author does not say anything about the length of car-leasing in M.
we also know that in reality, renting cars in those western countries or countries which have good credit-sys are much easier than in china. if people get credit cards then they can rent cars. also it is very common for yongster to have several credit cards. and for renting cars for a short-term is quite cheaper than buying a new one, so young people probably tend to lease cars instead of buying them, since their limited cosuming power／purchasing power.(购买力，忘记怎么说了。)
then we could come to the point of age groups in M. we can say like with the growing up of young people and their increasing purchasing power, this yr/in several yrs, we can predict that new car purchases will outnumber leases.

also, we should think about in average,what type of car people own in M, and what kind of car people in M like to rent.
the decreasing sales of car of that company probably is since the unsuitable sales approach. you can try to conquer this topic by discussing marketing, promotion, placing, and other business approaches.

furthermore, we could talk about this topic from the angle of what kind of city is M, for instance if this M is a tourist spot, then we can involve the type of people who leasing cars. if the majority is only tourists, not the local residents, then switching focus will be unnecessary, right?

also, we could examine what type of company this is, if it is an international company or just local one. if it is the former one, then we can say the sales number in M is not so important,
when one manage the business plans one can not only view from a small scale, but a whole sphere. so, the statement is too simple and too absolute.

you could also find other reasons to conquer this topic, just try to view it from boarder way.

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