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njuzhshao
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发表于 2007-7-25 02:49:24 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

题目：ARGUMENT120 - The following appeared in a health newsletter.

"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."

To reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the argument gives us an approach of more safety education and less encouraging of helmets. However, the reasoning for that seems incomplete at several points as follows.

By presenting that accidents caused by bicyling has increased by 200 percent during a ten-year period, an implication is reached that bicycling became more and more dangerous regardless of a fact that rate of helmit wearing bicyclists is rising. It is followed by the assertion that the rising of helmit wearing itself is a sign of high awareness of people for that. It also seems reasonable to say that helmit wearing, even if irresponsible for the increased number of accidents, provided little protection for bicyclists. However, is a percentage of 200 in ten years a really big number? Considering the rapid development of the country, an assumption that the amount of bicycle owned by people from all parts of the country multiples more than twice than that of ten years ago seems quite reasonable. On a possible condition like that, instead of the implication the author gives bicycling has become safer. Another question lies that: was the rate of bicyclists wearing helmits really rising? With a chance of selective samples ( it may be more convenient today than it was years ago for bicyclists to offer a positive report that they are wearing a helmit ), whether the survey reflects the real protection conditions of these group of people is arguable. With the two points remaining not well-justified, we can not simple neglect the protection helmits provided, nor can we accept a positive estimate of their awareness of putting on essential protection equipments.

Following these two implications, the argument concludes that helmits further bicylists' risk-taken behaviors, which then account for those serious injuries. However, the certainty of this conclusion is reduced by the unsteadiness of the two implcation above. In fact, traffic condition of the nation is more likely to be a directer cause for the increase in number of serious injuries. Whether articles to limit the speed in certain areas aiming at protecting bicyclists on the road from being injured by rushing cars are accepted into laws can influence much in this number, too. Even an increase in helmit wearing, just opposed to the author's viewpoint, and additional traffic signs may better the situation. Without ruling out these possible factors, it is not so wise to simply blame serious injuries on helmit wearing.

With these logical flaws, the author fails to establish a persuasive argument for his points. Without further statistics and analysis, hasty action in bicycling safety edution may not act to the point, and suspension in helmit wearing encouragement is of no guarantee to be harmless.

[ 本帖最后由 njuzhshao 于 2007-7-25 10:24 编辑 ]