[a习作temp] Argument117【Goal to Reach Excellence小组】第10次作业 [复制链接]

可乐加冰84
UID: 2221571

高级会员

Rank: 5 Rank: 5

声望: 24
寄托币: 1644
注册时间: 2006-6-13
精华: 0
帖子: 6

电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2008-2-12 00:04:05 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
WORDS: 439 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-2-11 23:55:45

In this argument, the author concludes that Valu-Mart(VM) stores can increase their profits by raising the stock of office supplies and machines. To justify this conclusion, the article's author cites a recent survey which shows that it is a trend that people take more work home, and points out that the demanding of home office machines and supplies would become popular. However, close scrutiny of these evidences reveals that it lends little support for the recommendation.

First of all, the author has not shown the survey upon which this argument depends to be statistically reliable. The people studied must be representative of overall population of people who have a job in the modern society. Otherwise the author cannot draw any conclusion that there is a work-at-home trend in the world based on the survey's results.

Secondly, even if the people studied in the survey is representative, the author has not shown any correlation, let alone a cause-and-effect relationship, between the work-at-home trend and increasing demand of home work supplies and machines. Perhaps, the works, taken home to finish, might all not need to use the office machines and supplies, such as paper shredders, fax, and so on. Or perhaps the companies which always have the work for employee to finish after work in the home would supply these employee home office machines and supplies. If so, the author cannot convince me that the work-at-home trend would increase the demand of home office machines and supplies.

Finally, even assuming the demand of home office supplies and machines will raise owing to the work-at-home trend, it would be hasty to infer VM stores can increase their profits by increasing the stock of home office machines and supplies. The author neglects that other factors, such as competition, cost and so on, would also affect stores' sales and profits. It is entirely possible that other similar stores take the same measurements for this trend and these stores have more competitive ability than VM stores. It is also possible that the cost of home office machines and supplies are also increasing quickly. Without better evidence that VM stores are better and more popular than other similar stores, it might be folly to follow the author's recommendation.

In sum, this argument relies on several pool assumptions and is therefore unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it , the author must show that the survey can be representative of overall population, and that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between the work-at-home trend and increasing demand of home office machines and supplies. The author also must consider about the competition and the cost if taking this measurements.