[i习作temp] ISSUE125过去预测未来 [复制链接]

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电梯直达

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发表于 2010-1-19 13:02:09 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

ISSUE125: "The past is no predictor of the future."

提纲：

1、从过去提炼的规律可以适用于一些情境。自然科学。
2、然而没有考虑人的主观选择。
3、没有考虑事情发生的偶然性。
4、有些新兴事物没有过去可依，也就难以用过去预测未来。

2010-1-19 事先已列好提纲初稿约70分钟 571字。感觉偶然性和新兴事物没有说清楚，在犹豫要不要删掉或者合并。求教！
嗯，这篇不算高频，就当练手吧~

Man is good at finding out patterns, espcially when dealing with the past. Often people learn from not only the history book but also personal experiences, data and statistics, abstracting certain principles and use them as tools for the prediction of the future. True, those patterns can tell something, yet it is unwise to fall back on stereotypes and turn a blind eye to other factors that influence the creation of the future: the past, sometimes, fails to serve as the predictor of the future.

Admittedly, some principles drawn from the past are used properly, especially when them are applied with little disturbance. In the field of nature science, for instance, the line runs through the development is clear and in most cases strictly unchangeable. If a person drops a ball, he knows for sure that the ball will eventually fall down the floor. Moreover, he can measure the approximate time and speed when it hits the bottom. Gravity theory provides perfect explanations and convincing measurements for us to extrapolate the future with data of the past.

When other factors apart from the history experiences step in, however, historical pattern may no longer appropriate due to the neglect of important parameters. The prediction made from the past tends to underplay the choice of people in the current situations, which leads to incorrect results. The development of Japan exemplifies this aptly. For thousands of years, Japan followed the footprint of China and built a feudal society with poor industries and conservative customs. Considering its past and comparing with the debacle of China in Qing dynasty, people would predict that Japan would soon fall prey on the western countries. Their extrapolation failed. Japanese people, being aware of the pressing situation, started revolution. In less than one hundred years, they fueled the country with rapidly developed industries and eager desires to progress, re-creating a nation stronge enough to stand up foreign invasions. The past has not seen the contemporaries; it has not seen the unpredicted future changed by the contemporaries.

Another factor is the accident that defies the prediction of any history. Upon the construction of the United States, committee members—those who came from different parts of Europe—voted for the official language of the new country. At last, English won German by an amazingly narrow margin: one vote. If one representative changed his/her mind that morning, the history of the United States would be rewrote—in German. Accidental yet crucial, things can happen without the interference of the past.

Also, when new thing pops up, it refutes the category of the past for there is little information concerning it, let alone prediction. How could one predict the advent of new fashion? How could one in the 1970s predict the coming of the information era and the explosion of the internet? Not only the current and technological invention refuse to fit the past, but also the advancement of a new social ideology. Soviet Union, for example, derived from unprecedented trial and error. People failed to foresee its coming, just as they failed to tell its collapse. For a brand new start, the past seldom acts as predictor.

While the past takes its role as good predictor in some cases, simply falling back onto the history can be misleading. Situations mutate, evolve and are constantly under the influence of uncertainty, complicating the path they move along and correspondingly disturbing the compass of the past.

横行不霸道~

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hugesea
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沙发

发表于 2010-1-19 16:12:01 |只看该作者

Man is good at finding out patterns, espcially when dealing with thepast. Often people learn from not only the history book but alsopersonal experiences, data and statistics, abstracting certainprinciples and use them as tools for the prediction of the future.True, those patterns can tell something, yet it is unwise to fall backon stereotypes and turn a blind eye to other factors that influence thecreation of the future: the past, sometimes, fails to serve as thepredictor of the future.（这个开头冗长无比啊，个人见解啊，我不喜欢这样的开头，我比较喜欢那种单刀直入的开头）

Admittedly, some principles drawn from the past are used properly,especially when them are applied with little disturbance. In the fieldof nature science, for instance, the line runs through the developmentis clear and in most cases strictly unchangeable. If a person drops aball, he knows for sure that the ball will eventually fall down thefloor. Moreover, he can measure the approximate time and speed when ithits the bottom. Gravity theory provides perfect explanations andconvincing measurements for us to extrapolate the future with data ofthe past.

When other factors apart from the history experiences step in, however,historical pattern may no longer appropriate due to the neglect ofimportant parameters. The prediction made from the past tends tounderplay the choice of people in the current situations, which leadsto incorrect results. The development of Japan exemplifies this aptly.For thousands of years, Japan followed the footprint of China and builta feudal society with poor industries and conservative customs.Considering its past and comparing with the debacle of China in Qingdynasty, people would predict that Japan would soon fall prey on thewestern countries. Their extrapolation failed. Japanese people, beingaware of the pressing situation, started revolution. In less than onehundred years, they fueled the country with rapidly developedindustries and eager desires to progress, re-creating a nation strongeenough to stand up foreign invasions. The past has not seen thecontemporaries; it has not seen the unpredicted future changed by thecontemporaries.

Another factor is the accident that defies the prediction of anyhistory. Upon the construction of the United States, committeemembers—those who came from different parts of Europe—voted for theofficial language of the new country. At last, English won German by anamazingly narrow margin: one vote. If one representative changedhis/her mind that morning, the history of the United States would berewrote—in German. Accidental yet crucial, things can happen withoutthe interference of the past.

Also, when new thing pops up, it refutes the category of the past forthere is little information concerning it, let alone prediction. Howcould one predict the advent of new fashion? How could one in the 1970spredict the coming of the information era and the explosion of theinternet? Not only the current and technological invention refuse tofit the past, but also the advancement of a new social ideology. SovietUnion, for example, derived from unprecedented trial and error. Peoplefailed to foresee its coming, just as they failed to tell its collapse.For a brand new start, the past seldom acts as predictor.（这个例子值得商榷，是不是世人都没预见到苏联的垮台？不一定吧，美国的一些政治家，那些鼓吹颜色革命的政治家，还有一些think-tank是不是预见到了苏联的倒台？还有，我们没有预见到苏联的倒台，还是因为资料的不足，以及对他过去的不了解，这个又正好应证了我的那个观点：对过去的无知，因而不能预见未来）

While the past takes its role as good predictor in some cases, simplyfalling back（前面用过了，换个词如何？retrospect） onto the history can be misleading. Situations mutate,evolve and are constantly under the influence of uncertainty,complicating the path they move along and correspondingly disturbingthe compass of the past.

说实话啊，呵呵，还是我昨天说的，你这样写，太艰深了，事物的发展是有规律性的，同事事物的发展又是必然性与偶然性共同作用的结果，说实话，这样去论述这篇issue，就是用中文，我都觉得我们拿不下来的，let alone英文呢？
换个思路吧，不要侧重写为啥了.....豆腐的思路是一个不错的思路。值得借鉴

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