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发表于 2011-4-16 23:40:39 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers. “A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. This result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media."

In this argument, the author concludes that people who tends to be a writer should focus on writing for television rather than for print media. To justify this conclusion, the author cites a survey that indicating much more people prefer to watch TV rather than read a novel. Plausible as this article may seems at first glance, it suffers from several logical flaws indeed and is therefore unconvincing.
First and foremost, the survey quoted in the argument provides no information concerning the way it is conducted and what the sample is, thus making the result of the survey highly questionable. For instance, if the sample involves only housewives, then the conclusion can merely reflect the interest of the other people in the whole, which renders itself doubtable. Besides, if the number of people surveyed is so little that is not sufficient enough, then the conclusion should be considered unbelievable. To sum up, unless the author provides further information about the survey, the conclusion that more people enjoy watch TV than reading novels is unconvincing.
Even if we concede that most people prefer TV to print media, the author assumes harshly that the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. However, no evidence is stated in the passage to support this assumption. To begin with, the article’s conclusion excluded nonfiction books, which might constitute book publishers’ main profit source. Furthermore, it is possible that people who love reading spend much more money on books than that spent on things related to TV series by those who love watching TV. In that case, it is unfair to conclude that TV industry will be more profitable in future. Without giving more information and evidence, I will never believe in the conclusion.
After considering the evidence as well as the reasoning, the recommendation that people who tends to be a writer should focus on writing for television rather than for print media is not fully verified. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide more information concerning the way the survey is conducted and describe the sampler in detail. Moreover, the arguer need to pay more attention to justify that TV is more profitable than printed media.