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电梯直达

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发表于 2012-3-26 23:48:25 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

The author predicts an increased demand for heating oil and recommends an investment in a company whose major business is the retail sail of heating oil, for he/she assumes that the heating season in this region will lasts longer and people there will demand more heating oil. It may be true that the investment in an oil company here can be a good choice, but without more information about this region and the demand, the arguer fails to substantiate this recommendation to be reasonable.

At the first place, the author makes an assumption that most homes who use oil in the northeastern United States will continue this tradition in the future. The tradition sometimes lasts a long time, but the arguer should provide more information about the trend. Perhaps the price of heating oil is increased dramatically that people living here can hardly afford it. Or perhaps there are new ways for them to heat in the winter which is more economic and environmental firendly, then people may choose the new method and forsake the tradition of heating oil. These factors will all drive the assumption unwarranted and it would be a risk for an investment.

At the second place, the author assumes that the experience of 90 days with below-normal temperatures is a long period. 90 days seems to be a long period but the arguer does not indicate what is the often case for a period of below-normal temperatures. Maybe it is ordinary for a 90-day below-normal temperatures or the period is even longer. For this reason, we can not judge whether 90 days is a long period for lower temperature. And if it is not, the trend of a longer heating season may be unwarranted and people may not demand more oil for heating thus the investment here may not be profitable.

Last but not the least, the author makes an assumption that the new comers will buy houses in this area and they will also use the oil for heating. Since it is common sense that new comers will need house to live and method to heat, but it does not mean that they buy or construct a new house and continue the utilization of oil for heating. Perhaps when they come to this region, there are some people move out. So that they can live in the constructed houses without buying a new house. What's more, as I have claimed above, they may choose a new way for heating or use other heating methods they used before such as electricty. In a word, there is no exact correlation between new comers and the increased demand for heating oil and this will prove the assumption unwarranted. At the same time, the argument will be seriously weakened for such poor assumption and the recommendation of investment will not be reasonable.

To sum up, maybe it is true that the trends of using heating oil will continue and the period of heating season will lasts longer. But without more convincing information, the arguer can not draw the conclusion for a better choice of investment so hastily.