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------题目------
The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
'Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well.'
------正文------
In this argument, the arguer recommends that Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and even many first--time ulcers can be prevented as well. To substantiate the recommendation, the arguer cites a recent study, which showed the different recurrence rates between people who took Zorba and the ones who did’ t. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat logical. A careful examination of it, nonetheless, hardly can the reasoning be valid if only on the strength of this evidence.
To begin with, the arguer depends on the gratuitous assumption that the decreasing of people' s recurrence rate is only relative to the use of Zorba. Actually, it is not necessary the case. There is no evidence to show that the people chosen to the survey are sure to develop new ulcers without Zorba, so it is unconvincing to draw the conclusion that Zorba has the affection to ulcers. And the arguer ignores to consider and rule out other possibilities that maybe preventing recurrent ulcers. Something maybe true that when people get first--time ulcers, they paid more attention to their living habits. They ate more fruit and vegetables than before and drank more water. While at the same time, they kept pleasure mood and tried to angry less. Naturally, they have less opportunity to get recurrent ulcers. So the mere fact that people prevent recurrent ulcer is insufficient evidence to conclude that Zorba is effective to prevent recurrent ulcer.
Moreover, the survey cited in the argument is too vague to believe. Firstly, samples chosen have to be representative enough. However, in this survey, there is no information to illustrate that the people who were chosen can represent the entire world. Maybe the ones who took Zorba are logically stronger than the ones who didn’t. Obviously, the former’ s recurrence rates are lower than the later. In this case, the result of the survey is invalid. Secondly, the quantities of people in each group are unclear in the survey. Only 25 percent and 75 percent are unsound numbers. If there are 10 people in the former group, thus 100 people in the later group, the result cannot support the conclusion. Lacking specific information, it is impossible to gain reliable result or make an informed recommendation.
In addition, it is arbitrary to result that Zorba is effective to first—time ulcers. The arguer simply equates recurrent ulcers with first—time ones, which is unwarranted. If people can prevent recurrent ulcers due to the immunity they got after the first—time infection, it is impossible for the people to prevent first—time ulcers. Anything has be done before draw the conclusion.
To sum up, the argument is not well reasoning and lacks credibility because the survey quoted in the analysis does not lead to strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument more valid, the arguer needs to make more effective and representative survey, such as the people’ s logical characters and the samples’ s information in detail, to support the argument.
[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-7-11 at 14:21 ] |
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