[a习作temp] argument150 再来一篇，望给点意见:) [复制链接]

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电梯直达

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发表于 2005-9-10 21:38:46 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

题目150The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.

"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline."
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习作A150 字数475 不限时
In this argument, the arguer claims that the decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide indicates the global pollution of water and air, and the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer cites two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California. This argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.
  First of all, the argument is based on a hasty judgment. The author falsely considers that the global pollution is the reason for the decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide and fails to take into account other causes of decrease of amphibians. The author does not supply sufficient evidence to support his point of view. Maybe it is the rising up or lowing down of the global temperature that leads to the decline. Hunting can also reduce the amount of amphibians. Because not all amphibians can adapt the environment at all time. What’s more, no data reveals the numbers of amphibians worldwide falls down. Thus the mere circs of Yosemite National Park cannot explain the circs of the world.
  In addition, tow studies of the national park are not complete, scientific and believable. From the survey quoted in the argument shows that in 1992 four species of amphibians less than that in 1915 were observed in the park, and the numbers were dramatically reduced. However, three species without being observed cannot account for they are disappeared. It is likely that the observer selected a period of time when some species of amphibians are not active so as to not be observed. For instance, in winter some animals are hibernating and some others migrated to other places. Moreover the arguer do not offer how the observer calculated, is it scientific or effective?
  What’s more, during the period from 1915 to 1992, many facts has changed or developed. For example, different managers of the park have different ways of managing, perhaps the change of the management causes the decline of the amphibians in the park. Or the climate alteration along with the time leads to the problem. And the author fails to present more information to let us see whether there were natural disasters took place during this time. It is also another one possible reason. All the above may come about, but the author does not demonstrate whether they do exist.
  Finally, now that we cannot get rid of the probability of the factor of the pollution, the author could not make a hasty conclusion that the introduction of trout cannot be the reason for the Yosemite decline.
  To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. Before we accept the conclusion, the author must present more facts that the pollution is indeed the cause of the worldwide decline.
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望牛人指点:handshake谢谢！

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-9-10 at 23:02 ]