[a习作temp] argument147[0710G突击先锋小组]第3次作业 [复制链接]

fainting_robin
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发表于 2007-7-23 22:30:49 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.没有限时，请狠拍！
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

1质疑调查的信度（样本选取是否有代表性，问卷设计使得结果只能限定为2个答案，但可能还有其它因素也很重要，比如游戏的类型，战争类或者模拟社区生活）
2即使调查的结果没问题，也不代表会买该公司的产品（影响购买行为的其它因素：品牌，价格，心情，广告，包装）
3质疑广告能起到的作用。喜欢玩游戏的人群不等于会购买游戏的人群（经济能力的限制）
针对不同人群广告设计应当不同。（10-25孩子-年轻人设计的广告往往强调游戏的画面啦刺激性啦，但如果是父母给孩子买游戏，他们首先排除有不良内容的，如血腥暴力的游戏而购买益智类的。）后来没展开
即使广告起作用，可能需要一段时间，不会那么快销量增加。（后来没写）
4即使新出炉的游戏好销
不代表游戏总销量会猛增，因为可能该公司销售的一游戏种类繁多，这边增的时候其它的降，涨销互抵，总量的变化就很难预测。还有前两年导致公司销量下降的因素（管理，资金，技术）会继续危害销量。

The editorial predicts that the declining trend of the sales of the Whirlwind video games is about to be reversed, and the sales is likely to increase sharply in the next few months. To solidify this prediction, the editorial cites a recent survey that reveals a preference to the games supplying lifelike graphics and requiring the most up-to-date computers. Then he claims the new introduced video games of Whirlwind have these characteristics. with a close consideration, we will find the argument suffers a couple of logic fallacies and evidence flaws.

To begin with, a threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. Without evidence convincing the respondents are representative of the video game players in general, such as the size and randomness of the sample, the editorial can't make the conclusion based o the survey. Another problem is about the design of the survey. We are not informed how many factors are there in the survey and what are they. So the possibility that the options are limited can not be ruled out. And if the options of the survey don't include the real important factors the players care about, the result would be totally inefficient.

Even I concede that the survey is valid, the assumption remains groundless without considerations of others factors which affects people's buying behavior. For an illustration, there are people who has a preference to certain makers. And if a strong maker covers market shares Whirlwind lost and wins consumer's heart, it won't easy for Whirlwind to recover the former state. Besides, the price, the ads, even the emotions will impact people's decisions.

Moreover, the assumption seems plausible at the first glance, that the extensive advertisement will surely promote the sales. However further reflection reveals that the editorial equals the demographic group most likely to play video games with the group most likely to pay for their products. For instance, a 10years child may like to play, even want to buy the games but he can't afford it. And a young guy around 20 may like to play but has a tight financial budget. He would prefer to borrow one form friends than to buy. So who will pay for the video games？Always the parents of the children. Ads designed for parents should differentiate with those for children and young guys. Thus the effectiveness of the ads promotion is questionable.

Last, even if the editorial can substantiate the forgoing assumptions, the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind will increase dramatically in the next few years in still unconvinced because the factors causing declination in the last two years may not be excluded. And the amount of sales isn't determined only by the new introduced games but also other classical games of the company. So it's impossible to anticipate the total sales with no information about the sales of other products.

In sum, the arguer fails to enhance the assertion with clear evidence and reliable facts. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide a more logic designed and carried out survey, clear the factors undermine the sales, and give information about the other products of the company.

[ 本帖最后由 fainting_robin 于 2007-7-24 09:18 编辑 ]

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pigcong
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发表于 2007-7-23 23:53:00 |只看该作者

The editorial predicts that the declining trend of the sales of the Whirlwind video games is about to be reversed, and the sales is likely to increase sharply in the next few months. To solidify this prediction, the editorial cites a recent survey that reveals a preference to the games supplying lifelike graphics and requiring the most up-to-date computers. Then he claims the new introduced video games of Whirlwind have these characteristics. With a close consideration, we will find the argument suffers a couple of logic fallacies and evidence flaws.

To begin with, a threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. Without evidence convincing the respondents are representative of the video game players in general, such as the size and randomness of the sample, the editorial can't make the conclusion based on the survey. Another problem is about the design of the survey. We are not informed how many factors are there in the survey and what are they. So the possibility that the options are limited can not be ruled out. And if the options of the survey don't include the real important factors the players care about, the result would be totally inefficient.(主题句简明，论证结构严谨)

Even I concede that the survey is valid, the assumption remains groundless without considerations of others factors which affects people's buying behavior. For an illustration, there are people who have a preference to certain makers. And if a strong maker covers market shares Whirlwind lost and wins consumer's heart, it won't easy for Whirlwind to recover the former state. Besides, the price, the ads, even the emotions will impact people's decisions.

Moreover, the assumption seems plausible at the first glance, that the extensive advertisement will surely promote the sales.（这个主题句不是很明确概括） However further reflection reveals that the editorial equals the demographic group most likely to play video games with the group most likely to pay for their products. For instance, a 10years child may like to play, even want to buy the games but he can't afford it. And a young guy around 20 may like to play but has a tight financial budget. He would prefer to borrow one form friends than to buy. So who will pay for the video games？They are always the parents of the children. Ads designed for parents should differentiate with those for children and young guys. Thus the effectiveness of the ads promotion is questionable.

Last, even if the editorial can substantiate the forgoing assumptions, the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind will increase dramatically in the next few years in still unconvinced because the factors causing declination in the last two years may not be excluded. And the amount of sales isn't determined only by the new introduced games but also other classical games of the company. So it's impossible to anticipate the total sales with no information about the sales of other products.（非常好的idea，要向你学习）

In sum, the arguer fails to enhance the assertion with clear evidence and reliable facts. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide a more logic designed and carried out survey, as well as clear the factors undermine the sales, and give information about the other products of the company.
整篇文章结构严谨，行文流畅，觉得美中不足的是有些地方使用了第一人称，显得不够客观

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