[a习作temp] Argument45 做人厚道，榴莲必回 [复制链接]

justinwei
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楼主

发表于 2008-2-22 15:49:34 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

题目：ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
字数：376 用时：00:30:00 日期：2008-2-22 11:32:45

The notion that decline in deer population is due to the fact that deer cannot travel across the frozen sea sounds as presented appealing. After all, the practice is so important for survival of the deer. However, the conclusions would conceal other causes of the decline.

The report from hunters is not credible. The number of the deer hunters found cannot represent the actual number of all of them. Common sense tells us that hunters are most likely to hunt where there are abundant animals. It is possible that what the deer feed on is different from what other animals eat, and thus the deer are likely to live in a place without many other species these years. As a result, hunters may believe that the population of the deer declines when they see fewer of them during hunting. However, the truth may be that the deer transit to another place rich in food.

The trend that globe is getting warmer may be not so severe as to endanger the living of the deer. What we know here is that global warming results in ice melting, but we know nothing about the extent. How much of the ice melts until now? Is the ice melting just that covering the sea which the deer migrate across? Perhaps ice melting just accounts for subtle part of the whole and has nothing to do with the circumstances of the deer. If so, there is little relationship between global warming and the decline.

The argument also fails to rule out other alternatives responsible for the decline. Perhaps the unrevealed factors should be more significant. If the plants on which the deer feed become rare because of changes of climate, the deer would starve in lack of food. Or, if hunt for them becomes more frequent recently in order to derive oil, fur, or some valuable part of them, the population would inevitably go down because of human behavior.

The argument would provide important information for the decline of the deer and call for our attention for protecting them. Before any conclusions about the causes of the decline are reached, however, a more careful and comprehensive examination of the truth is needed. After all, a false analysis would lead to inefficient efforts.

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courtyard
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沙发

发表于 2008-2-22 18:41:50 |只看该作者

楼主好～
感觉文章写的很好，很精练并且该点的错误都点出来了
说一下我认为的问题：

1、unbased casual relationship这个问题和接下来展开的 other alternatives that contribute to 应该放到第一个位置，因为这个是最主要的。

2、第二段的论证不是很充分，只举了一个反例，因此这个论证就显得苍白，没有突出原因的多样性。但是值得肯定的是举出的这个例子展开的很详细

3、好像还有一个错误： global warming trend does not indicate the increasing temperature in that place

感觉楼主写的很好，特别是后两段论证很精彩
http://bbs.gter.ce.cn/bbs/viewth ... &extra=page%3D1
欢迎来拍～

再补充一下，我觉得casual relationship 那段和 other alternatives 那段是不是可以合并起来，然后再加上我说的那个错误。虽然分开两端写会更充分，但是合起来会比较节省时间，起码多找了一个错误～

[ 本帖最后由 courtyard 于 2008-2-22 20:15 编辑 ]

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