[a习作temp] argument45【0906G Fight 4月同心砥砺冲刺组】第2周第3次作业 by 同心砥砺 [复制链接]

同心砥砺
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电梯直达

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发表于 2009-2-23 22:10:39 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

题目：ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

The author made a conclusion that, because the global warming trends, the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to travel across the frozen sea. At first glance, the author's procedure of reasoning is somewhat convincing, but after further reflection, in my point of view, this argument suffers three logical fallacies.

First, I doubt the reality of the reports from local hunters which the author's original data depend on. Without showing us the total number of hunters in that place and the number of hunters who reported the decline in arctic deer population, the author cannot persuade me to acknowledge that the number of arctic deer has dropped. For example, if only 2 of the 200 hunters in that place have reported the decline, and other hunters' observations are not known, we cannot believe these reports. Besides, even if majority of hunters there have reported that fact, we should still ask, whether in Arctic the places where the deer lived are still the former places where the hunters hunted. It is entirely possible that a large part of deer have moved to some unknown places.

Secondly, Even assuming that the number of deer has really decreased as the hunters reported, we cannot simply conclude that the global warming trends which happened recently caused the sea ice to melt in Canada's arctic region and so the decline of deer population. Actually, the influence of warming trends in Canada's arctic region should be carefully evaluated. Maybe temperature there has not changed even though many other region of sea has melted because of the global warming trends. Until the author supplies some evidence of warming trends in Canada's arctic region and incline in temperature there, we cannot really know whether the climate there has changed.

Finally, even if the sea ice there has melted because of warming trends, being unable to travel across the frozen sea as before is probably not the main reason of decline in deer. Perhaps, there were only a few of deer which died because could not travel, and a large number of them have found some new ways to migrate. Other factors, such as a eruption of epidemic in deer and over-hunting, could also make the deer population drastically dropped, and should be eliminated before draw a final conclusion.

To sum up, this argument lacks credibility, since the information reached in could not lend strong support to what the author maintained. To make it more convincing, more evidences, such as a more-hunter-covered survey and a evaluation of the influence of global warming trends there, should be offered.

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qldingyu
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沙发

发表于 2009-2-24 21:01:56 |只看该作者

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

The author made a conclusion that, because the global warming trends, the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to travel across the frozen sea. At first glance, the author's procedure of reasoning is somewhat convincing, but after further reflection, in my point of view, this argument suffers three logical fallacies.这个开头我觉得比较简洁

First, I doubt the reality of the reports from local hunters which the author's original data depend on. Without showing us the total number of hunters in that place and the number of hunters who reported the decline in arctic deer population, the author cannot persuade me to acknowledge that the number of arctic deer has dropped. For example, if only 2 of the 200 hunters in that place have reported the decline, and other hunters' observations are not known, we cannot believe these reports. Besides, even if majority of hunters there have reported that fact, we should still ask, whether in Arctic the places where the deer lived are still the former places where the hunters hunted. It is entirely possible that a large part of deer have moved to some unknown places.

Secondly, Even assuming that the number of deer has really decreased as the hunters' reported, we cannot simply conclude that the global warming trends which happened recently caused the sea ice to melt in Canada's arctic region and so the decline of deer population. Actually, the influence of warming trends in Canada's arctic region should be carefully evaluated. Maybe temperature there has not changed even though many other region of sea has melted because of the global warming trends. Until the author supplies some evidence of warming trends in Canada's arctic region and incline in temperature there, we cannot really know whether the climate there has changed.

Finally, even if the sea ice there has melted because of warming trends, being unable to travel across the frozen sea as before is probably not the main reason of decline in deer. Perhaps, there were only a few of deer which died because could not travel, and a large number of them have found some new ways to migrate. Other factors, such as a eruption of epidemic in deer and over-hunting, could also make the deer population drastically dropped, and should be eliminated before draw a final conclusion.(我觉得题目上有明显的暗示是有可能全球变暖导致一些植物可以在原来不能生长的地方生长了,然后鹿们不用越岛觅食了,用这个会好一点吧,然后把其它导致下降的原因归到另一段,说作者不能简单看问题)

To sum up, this argument lacks credibility, since the information reached in could not lend strong support to what the author maintained. To make it more convincing, more evidences, such as a more-hunter-covered survey and a evaluation of the influence of global warming trends there, should be offered.
我觉得作者的argument 写得已经挺纯属了中间三段逻辑紧密我觉得再多攻一个点比如讲不应该只考虑全球变暖,还可以有其它原因会比较丰满一些额我得水平不高只能提出这么些意见向作者学习

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