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OPIC: ARGUMENT158 - The Trash-Site Safety Council has recently conducted a statewide study of possible harmful effects of garbage sites on the health of people living near the sites. A total of five sites and 300 people were examined. The study revealed, on average, only a small statistical correlation between the proximity of homes to garbage sites and the incidence of unexplained rashes among people living in these homes. Furthermore, although it is true that people living near the largest trash sites had a slightly higher incidence of the rashes, there was otherwise no correlation between the size of the garbage sites and people's health. Therefore, the council is pleased to announce that the current system of garbage sites does not pose a significant health hazard. We see no need to restrict the size of such sites in our state or to place any restrictions on the number of homes built near the sites.
WORDS: 593 TIME: no time limited DATE: 2008-7-24 19:40:45
提纲:
1. 样本和结论的问题
2. 论据自相矛盾
3. 并没有调查证明不限制垃圾场的规模和地点不会影响市民健康
In this argument, the speaker claims that the garbage sites near the people's home are or will not harmful for the people's health, and so no need to restrict the size and place of garbage sites. To support his assertion, he cites evidence that the study from Trash-Site Safety Council (TSSC) has draw conclusion that little people living near the garbage sites had the trash and no correlation between the size of the garbage sites and people's health. Close scrutiny of these evidences, however, reveal that none of them lend credible supports to the declaration.
On the first glance, the speaker cites result of a recent survey from TSSC that only a small statistical correlation between the proximity of homes to garbage sites and the incidence of unexplained rashes among people living in these homes. In order to evaluate the evidence of the survey, we have to consider how the survey was conducted. The sample of this study is only five garbage site and 300 people. Lacking information about the amount number of people living near the garbage sites and the garbage sites, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. It is a relatively small number to draw a conclusion. So, the study cited by the speaker cannot convince me that the garbage sites are little relation to the rashes.
Second, the study’s conclusion is self-contradictory. On one side, it asserts that it is true that people living near the largest trash sites had a slightly higher incidence of the rashes. On the other side, it tells us no correlation between the size of the garbage sites and people’s health. And the causality between both sides is unwarranted. No evidence is offered to support this relationship. To establish this relationship, the speaker must provide more scientific evidence to persuade me. For example, how the conclusion is drew, whether the conclusion has statistics analysis or accurate data; whether other small trash sites has the same incidence as the largest one; and whether the conclusion is statistically valid. Without the statistics data, the speaker cannot bolster the conclusion.
Finally, the speaker fails to consider the other sickness result from the nearby garbage site. In the study, only the unexplained rashes have been examined. Yet, no evidence is provided to the rashes is the only healthy problem which can be caused by trash. On the other word, having no rashes is little indication that having other sickness. Perhaps, the people living near the garbage site will suffer the pneumonia, if it is the case, the harmful effects on people will be severe. Furthermore, the conclusion that no needs to restrict the size of trash site and the number of the home near the garbage site is too arbitrary. It is entirely possible that due to no restriction of size and number of the home, the people’s health condition will degenerate in the future. In short, the speaker cannot draw conclusion arbitrarily without consideration of various facts.
In conclusion, the assertion is simply not credible, at least based on the article. To convince me that the garbage sites have no harmful effect on people living near them and it is unnecessary to restrict trash size and the number of home near them, the author must provide clear statistical evidence that the study from TSSC is credible, no correlation between size of garbage and people’s health. Also, the speaker should provide the evidence that no other sickness will be caused by garbage except for rashes, and no restriction of garbage size will not cause the harm of health.
又臭又长,还没有限时~~大家凑合着看看吧~ |
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