[a习作temp] 第一篇argement，9G的坐等悲剧 [复制链接]

ouchuanjia
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发表于 2011-8-23 12:05:48 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由 ouchuanjia 于 2011-8-23 12:06 编辑

A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus there is clearly a call for the government to strive to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents by launching an education program that concentrates on the factors other than helmet use that are necessary for bicycle safety."

ARGUMENT 125

         Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

         Grounding on the two studies,supposing that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and then they take more risks as a result,the author accordingly suggests that the government should launch an education program that concentrates on the factors other than helmet use that are necessary for bicycle safety. Well-intentioned the arguer may be ,the validity of the suggestion ,however is severely weakened by several logical flaws appeared in the process of reasoning.

            First and foremost,for lack of data concerning the accident rates and the total number of bicyclists,the assumption that wearing helmets actually increased bicyclists' risks is open to doubt.For example, if the total number of bicyclists has increased from 10,000 to 50,000 ,and the number of accidents are only 100 ten years ago.So during the ten-year period the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent,but the accident rates also have decreased greatly.As a result,although the percentage of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets increased from 35 percent to 80 percent,but without the addition information about accident rates or the total number of bicyclists,the arguer would not demonstrate that wearing helmets actually increased bicyclists' risks.

            In addition,even assuming that the accident rates increased,the author fails to provide adequate evidence that wearing helmets is the reason for the bicycle accident.In the argument,the arguer doesn't show that how many bicyclists are wearing helmets in the bicycle accident.Therefor,if the bicyclists are not wearing helmets in the bicycle accident,it is impossible to support that wearing helmets will easily cause the bicycle-related accidents.More solid evidence are needed before we could be convinced that the causal relationship between wearing helmets and the accidents.

            Last but not the least，even if most bicyclists,who are injured in the accident,are wearing helmets,but the author provides no evidence that bicyclists take more risks because they are wearing helmets.There is no evidence to confirm the bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets.Granted that the bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets,however,we cannot ensure that they will take more risks as a result. While the bicyclists are wearing helmets,this fact would reveal that they are more prudent than the bicyclists reported not wearing helmets.For that reason,the bicyclists reported wearing helmets are very careful of bicycling,thus they can avoid the bicycle accident.

            In conclusion,the recommendation of the author is not well supported.To strengthen the argument,the arguer should provide clear evidence to demonstrate that the accidents caused by bicycling were much more serious.And the arguer also need to prove that the inevitable relationship between wearing helmets and the bicycle-related accidents.In this case,this author's argument is not likely significantly persuade the government to launch an education program.

可以说不是写的，完全是拼凑的，从下午弄到晚上，9G的坐等悲剧啊~！