[a习作temp] Argument 45高频题感觉逻辑错误是不是找偏了谢谢! [复制链接]

heying
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电梯直达

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发表于 2005-4-13 20:51:35 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

Argument 45
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

'Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.'

正文:
In this argument, the author claimed that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to continue their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea in Canada's arctic region. To justify the argument, the author cited that the reports of hunters’ shows the declining population and the reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. Although the argument seems to be plausible at the first sight, its reasoning, however, is flawed.

The first problem of the argument is that the report of the hunters is unreliable. No evidence provides the number of the hunters to make the assumption that the deer population declines. However, it is entirely possible that the local hunters were new comers and have not used to the surroundings there. Perhaps the hunters missed the good season for hunting deer there. Since the author failed to rule out these possibilities, the report is not convincing that the deer population is significantly declining.

Another problem is that the author assumes that the global trends be applied to Canada's arctic region. Yet, the global tendency might not be suitable in any regions in the world. Perhaps Canada's arctic region has not the warming trend of melting ice. If so, the global trends proves nothing to the report and the author cannot conclude that the warming trends cause the deer unable to follow their old migration patterns.

Even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, the global warming trends and the report of declining population does not prove that the former causes the latter. There is a good chance that the plants the deer feed on extinct for some reason, thus cause the deer difficult to survive. Another possible scenario is that the food chain may be damaged and the population dropped. These scenarios, if true, would serve to undermine the author's claim that the population decline is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea

To sum up, the argument is dubious at best. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide more strong evidence to substantiate that the hunters' report is representative and global trends of melting ice is applied to Canada's arctic region. What's more, the author should rule out other possible reasons may cause the decline of deer population to support the conclusion.

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raymondqian
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沙发

发表于 2005-4-13 21:46:12 |只看该作者

不知道楼主发现了没有,原题中:
Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands
这句中有一个短语at least some of the year,我想在这点上能攻击, 文章武断地认定we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.'但你可以说全球变暖可能减少了这段时间, 但并为改变它们的迁徙习惯.

不知对不对, 我在扫题,分析逻辑错误.希望有用

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raymondqian
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板凳

发表于 2005-4-13 21:53:35 |只看该作者

And here you can also attack the relationship between the food and the survival of the deer. The decline may be due to other causes than food supply, in that it is totally possible that natural development of a species of fauna. Other than the global warming trends, it supports better.

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