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恩,第一次交作业,有点超时。
提纲:
1。study的有效性
2。13年前的study结果不能够说明是hormone导致了shy。
3。同样,follow-study也不能说明结论。(1)shy是children自己认为的。(2)shy很可能不是由于早期的hormone导致的。
TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice.
They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight.
In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 492 TIME: 0:40:00 DATE: 2006-7-22
In this editorial, the author conclude that it is the increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness would go on into their later life. To strengthen this conclusion, the author cites a study held thirteen years ago and a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, however, these studies can not well support the conclusion, and the editorial is based on a series unconvincing assumption and reasoning.
In the first place, the study conducted thirteen years ago was based on a group of 25 infants. From the editorial we get the only information that they are all showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. However, other basic information, such as their birthday, their sex, and where they are from, was not provided. Moreover, the sample of 25 infants is too short to make the result convincing, for the sample of infants should be sufficient large. Without such information, the conclusion from this study can not be convincing. Moreover, the study should be conducted on a controlled environment, and all relative factors should be considered.
In the second place, even the 25 infants in the first study did statistically represent all of infants, the assumption from the study that the distress of these infants is caused by the increasing melatonin of their mother, is not convincing. First, the author assumes that the melatonin produced by mothers in autumn would surely affect their infants, but he did not cite sufficient evidence to prove it. Second, the author assumes it is melatonin that caused the distress of infant. From the evidence presented, we can only be convincing that the melatonin and distress of infant only has a correlation, not a cause-result correlation. Without sufficient evidence, we can not be convincing as it claims.
In the third place, considering the follow-up study, the editorial has made a series assumption. First, the result of this study was based on self-identified of these children who show signs. But whether a child is shy should be based on an object test or observation, not by child's own thought. Without consider such factors, it is totally possible that the children who identified themselves as shy are not shy in fact. Second, the author also assume that the shy was caused by melatonin when they were conceived. However, there is no evidence to support this assumption. Without sufficient evidence, the shy of these children may be formed after their birth, and was shaped by the society. In short, without necessary evidence to support the assumption, the author can not conclude from the mere suspected follow-up study.
In sum, in the basis of discussion above, the conclusion of this editorial is unconvincing in several aspects. To strengthen it the author should provide more evidence to ensure that these two studies are statistically conducted and their result are well reasoned. Moreover, the author should provide sufficient evidence to support his assumption from these two studies.
[ 本帖最后由 hustmen 于 2006-7-22 16:55 编辑 ] |
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