【1010G精英组】Argument20 F组回收站

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第一阶段最后一篇：Argument20
5月21日上交+批改

20The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

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The author takes it for granted that if the town council of Balmer Island limits the number of mopeds rented by the six rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day in summer, the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians would be correspondingly reduced. In addition, he ensures that by limiting the number of rentals, the town council could achieve the aim that the accident would decrease by 50% in moped accident; because the neighboring island of Torseau has attained the target after carrying out the similar measures. However, the author over simplifies the causes of the accidents and the faulty analogy makes his conclusion untenable as it stands.

To begin with, the author assumes that some traffic accidents involving mopeds and pedestrian would be definitely increased when the population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000. However, this presumption is quite gratuitous. What was the population before? How does the population reach to such a large quantity? And, would the population explosion undoubtedly cause the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians? It is probable that the large population is the result of an exceptional increase in mass visitor arrivals, which is merely a temporary phenomenon; and these tourists would prefer to take touring buses to travel around, rather than renting mopeds. Besides, it is also possible that the big population is caused by numerous newborns who would be unable to use the mopeds or became walkers and thus could not lead to traffic accidents. Therefore, without ruling out alternative causes of the large population, the author cannot justify that the accidents must occur and would increase for sure.

Moreover, the author observes a correlation between the number of rented mopeds and accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, and then indicates that the former is the cause of the latter. However, he fails to rule out other possible explanations for the accidents. Maybe such accidents are due to the deficient traffic facilities, such as the vague traffic signals, poor roadway maintenance and design, or that the motorists or pedestrians do not know the traffic rules well or even disobey the regulations on purpose. Any of these factors might lead to the moped accidents. Thus, the only fact does not necessarily imply the causal relation and the suggestion of limiting the number of mopeds rented by the local companies would accordingly contribute nothing to the accidents occurring in Balmer.

Even assuming that most of the accidents are caused by the mopeds, the author fails to consider possible differences between Balmer and Torseau that might help to bring about a different result after carrying out the similar limits on moped rentals. Perhaps people in Torseau would more like to rent the moped so that limiting motor rental would effectively reduce the percentage of moped accidents. However, it is not the same case in Balmer: the people may prefer to ride bicycle or take shuttle bus; the limiting measure would not probably impact the moped accidents. Consequently, without accounting for these or other dissimilarities, the author cannot assume that what resulted in Torseau would bring about the same result in Balmer.

To sum up, due to lacking more information on the cause of the large population and overlooking other possibilities lead to moped accidents as well as the different conditions between Balmer and Torseau, the conclusion drawn in this letter is unconvincing.

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The certainty of the city council reached in this argument seems to be obviously convincing, which is based on a fact of increasing population, a presumption of reduction in moped accidents and an analogy between island of Balmer and Torseau. However, both the three prerequisites and deducted proposal based on them are fraught with flaws after a careful scrutiny.

The merely increasing number can not lead to corresponding increase of mopeds and pedestrians, needless to say the number of accidents involving these two. It is highly possible that more tourists have already drawn the attention from transportation department and more buses, taxies and shuttle boats have been applied in the island of Balmer. Coming people may also drive or rent cars. Hence the only action about mopeds is meaningless and fruitless.

Similarly, if people choose mopeds as their tool of transportation, rent is not the only source to get them. They are likely to buy or borrow mopeds and bring them along. In this case, only control and limit the number of mopeds from the island rental companies has little effect on the total number of moped users.

Even if the limit on moped rentals is effective, the accidents can not be reduced as expected. Accidents were caused for other important reasons, over speed, over drunken, overload, carelessness, distractions and others. Moreover, not only mopeds but also cars and motorbikes can also cause accidents.

The analogy between island of Balmer and Torseau is over general and hasty. The author just points out the similar limits on moped rentals of these two islands, what he/ she neglects can be more essential factors necessary to evaluate the situation. Are the roads the same? Did the population of Torseau increase last year as that of Balmer this summer? What percentage of mopeds was in all ways of transportation in Torseau and is in Balmer? Without considering and ruling out these possible variables, the action can not lead to 50 percent reduction in moped accidents as predicted.

The conclusion in this given paragraph just scratches the surface of justifying the recommendation that the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by rental companies. Without taking other relevant and necessary factors into account, the author's deduction may be well-intended but possibly turn out to cause more terrible tragedies instead of optimistic outcomes.