本帖最后由 xiaoxiaoW 于 2009-5-31 18:10 编辑
这是eco的分析，第一次做 有些生疏，以后会更加努力！
红色为红宝词汇，绿色为语言表达借鉴，橙色为文章大致思路分析 黄色为自己看法
Don't get too excited about some recent brighter economicnews
IT HAS been a cheerful couple ofdays for those starved of bright economic news. Hopefulstatistics have been trickling in from many parts of the world. OnFriday May 29th revised first quarter GDP figures for America showed that theeconomy there had contracted slightly less than had earlier been reported. Inaddition durable-goods orders in the country rose by the most in 16 months. InJapan, factory output rose by 5.2% in April, the biggest monthly increase, inpercentage terms, in over half a century. And in the first quarter India’seconomy grew by a bullish 5.8%, compared with ayear before, while South Korea’s作者开始例举经济复苏的数字根据 industrialproduction continued to rise in April.
Even in gloomyEurope there are encouragingsigns.
进一步举例Poland’s GDP ticked up by 0.8% in the first quarter, asdid German private consumption (in the same period) and retail sales also grew,by 0.5%, in April. British consumer confidence remained steady in April, andhouse prices there rose both in March and May, according to one index.
For optimists, these are all signs that might pointtowards the beginning of the end of the “Great Recession”（TS）. Headline writers, and those who are urging stockmarkets to continue rising,will continue to talk of hopes of recovery. Yet a closer look at the detail ofthe latest figures suggests that hope springs eternaland will latch on to what it can—even when a more soberanalysis would suggest there is a long way to go before recovery sets in.
Optimists make much of statistics that beat analysts’ expectations. But when a particular figure outdoes predictions it maybe because those expectations were overly pessimistic, rather than a sign thatsomething fundamental has changed for the better. 全文主旨句
What, for instance, is the right reference point on thelatest news on India's economy? Doomsters mightfret that it has grown at the slowest quarterly pace in several years.Cheerleaders could rejoice that it has expanded slightly faster than mostpeople had expected. Weary of negative news, thelatter explanation is a tempting way to make sense of the numbers, but the gloomy view is equally valid.
Consider, too, the figures for consumer confidence in Britain. Althoughconsumer gloom seems to have abated, the reported level of –27 is remarkablylow by historical standards. If one takes into account reports that Britishconsumers had been growing a bit more confident in recent months, the lateststatistic could suggest a halt to a small rally, which is hardly something to cheer. Thisexample highlights the difficulty of extrapolatingfrom a single month or quarter of data, which can easily be skewed by one-off events such as a national holiday orsudden desperate measures by retailers to offload stock. Discerning whether a more sustained recovery might beunder way takes, unsurprisingly, more data.
Thus pessimists, who are unconvinced that the worst isover for the world economy, have much to reinforce their dark mood. One particular concern is that the financial and creditproblems at the root of the global recession have not been dealt withsatisfactorily. KeiichiroKobayashi, a Japanese economist, has looked back to Japan’sexperience in the late 1990s and argues that unless the banks are fixed, astrong recovery for the world economy is impossible. Some disagree, suggestingthat economic output can bounce back even beforecredit and financial markets are again healthy, if consumers get their walletsopen. But even if this argument is compelling in some historical cases, thistime it seems that household spending in many economies will remain weakbecause of high levels of debt.
One man who has made his name in recent years as a doom-monger, Nouriel Roubini,an economist at New York University, recently suggested that recovery fromrecession was far from imminent, arguing that“it's going to last another six to nine months”. It might not be surprisingthat he avoids a bullish prediction, but Mr Roubini goes one step further, noting that other economists are still suggesting a“doomsday” scenario,(这句的成分是什么啊？，没看懂) with continuing contractionfor a long time to come, and thus even he could be considered as an optimist.
the author shows no prejudice in the issue. opinions of optimists are leaded by a serial munbers of those country performs good recently,and then turned to the topic sentense which shows the other possibility of inceresing numbers,and ended up with a conclusion that it may last a another 6 to 8 month to get out of the recession.
| 
GO
发表于 2009-5-24 22:07:20
回应
港理工Phd面试记录自我介绍老师提问：1.哪些是独立完成的工作2.Motivation Inovation分别是什么交流环节...
口语45s准备时间，1：30作答，写作没有准备时间，10min作答。口语为视频录制形式，准备时间不会录像，作答时...
1.why港大 2.why MIPA3.时政类问题
1.自我介绍2.具体项目相关3.关于本专创业想法
转发
