【10G10Hawk】小组8月12日任务——Argument15

谦行天下UID: 2797557

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

互改顺序：后改前
13-9-11-5-1-6-10

austen06UID: 2841836

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 414          TIME: 00:29:36          DATE: 2010-8-12 15:05:24

In the newsletter, the author suggests that Old Dairy (OD) stockholders sell their shares and other investors do  not purchase stock in OD. To substantiate his recommendation, the author cites a survey showing that 80% of the respondents have the desires to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. In addition, the author points out the products by OD are high in fat and cholesteral and predict OD's sales and profits would surly decline. However, the argument suffers from several logical mistakes which render them unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the author offers little information about the survey that the survey is statistically reliable. Specifically, the author must show the percentage of the people who participate in the survey. The lower the percentage is, the less reliable the survey result is. Also, the author must show those respondents are representative of the general population. Unless the author presents additional information, the survey's result is dubious at best.

Moreover, even if the survey is reliable, and a large proportion of the population would prefer a low level of fats and cholesterol in their food, the author unfairly assumes that those customers would actually stop consuming OD foods and purchase those low-fats products. Perhaps they cannot resist the tempatation of the flavor of the OD products and still consume them as before. Perhaps the low-fats products available in the markets are considerably high thus many people continue to purchase OD products. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude the sales of OD would diminish.

Finally yet importantly, granted that the sales of OD products will diminish, the author's claim that the profits of OD will also decrease is unwarranted. Common sense and experience has informed me that profitability is a function of revenue and expense. It is entirely possible that the prices of OD products go up which might beget a increasing profit despite the declining sales. It is also quite possible that the expense OD spends in producing their products decrease due to the advanced producing procedures OD adopts. Without providing further information about the price and expense of OD products, the author could not conclude a declining profit of OD.

To sum up, the author's suggestion is unpersuasive. To strengthen this argument, the author must provides additional information to ensure the reliability of the survey. In addition, the author should also provides more evidence to show both the sales and profits of OD would decline.


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In the newsletter, the author suggests that Old Dairy (OD) stockholders sell their shares and other investors do  not purchase stock in OD. To substantiate his recommendation, the author cites a survey showing that 80% of the respondents have the desires to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. In addition, the author points out the products by OD are high in fat and cholesteral and predict OD's sales and profits would surly decline. However, the argument suffers from several logical mistakes which render them unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the author offers little information about the survey that the survey is statistically reliable. Specifically, the author must show the percentage of the people who participate in the survey. The lower the percentage is, the less reliable the survey result is. Also, the author must show those respondents are representative of the general population. Unless the author presents additional information, the survey's result is dubious at best.

Moreover, even if the survey is reliable, and a large proportion of the population would prefer a low level of fats and cholesterol in their food,
the mere fact that low-fat products abound in many food stores amounts to scant evidence that the customers will consume these low-fat products rather than OD products. Perhaps they cannot resist the tempatation of the flavor of the OD products and still consume them as before. Or Perhaps the prices of these low-fats products available in the markets are considerably high thus many people continue to purchase OD products. Or perhaps these low-products are not even the substitues of the OD products. For that matter, people might buy OD products as well as those low fat products. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude the sales of low-fat products would increase while the sales of OD products would decrease.

Finally yet importantly, granted that the sales of OD products will diminish, the author's claim that the profits of OD will also decrease is unwarranted. Common sense and experience has informed me that profitability is a function of revenue and expense. It is entirely possible that the prices of OD products go up which might beget a increasing profit despite the declining sales. It is also quite possible that the expense OD spends in producing their products decrease due to the advanced producing procedures OD adopts. Without providing further information about the price and expense of OD products, the author could not conclude a declining profit of OD.

To sum up, the author's suggestion is unpersuasive. To strengthen this argument, the author must provides additional information to ensure the reliability of the survey. In addition, the author should also provides more evidence to show both the sales and profits of OD would decline.

austen06UID: 2841836

由于写的时候将题目最后一句话理解错了，导致整篇argu有点偏差，因此自己已经做了第一次修改了
TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 454          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010/8/12 23:43:24


The statement that(that 后面应该接一个从句） Old Dairy(OD) stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company sees at first glance to be an obvious conclusion. After all, it was stated in the argument that a large numbers of the respondents said that they wanted to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. However, before the author can rightly make a prediction about the company's future, the following logical fallacies must be considered.

First see from the survey about the customs' desiring, all we know is that 80 percent of the respondents indicated that they didn't want to buy something containing fats and cholesterol. However, there is no statistics about how many people have given an answer in this research. There exists a big possibility that the sample is just small while the respondents are just a few of the whole consumers. The respondents may probably consist of those people in an old age who cares more about their health while the masses such as children, young people are used to have foods containing fats and cholesterol. Unless the arguer can provide more convincing evidence to ruling out all the possibilities I mentioned above, the conclusion will be undermined.

Secondly, the fact that low-fat products abound in many food stores cannot guarantee the decrease of OD's sells（sales） and profits. It is possible that citizens buy both low-fat foods and high in fat foods at the same time. There can’t be just one factor for consumers to choose foods. The tasty of one product, the pride of one product and the popularity of one product all play a vital role in people’s choosing behaviors. And OD’s products may probably meet these requirements. Thus in this case the speaker fails to conclude that OD’s sells and profits would get down.（太口语化了）

The last but not the least, even the mid conclusion that people will buy less OD's product since it containing fats and cholesterol is true, the final conclusion that OD stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not buy OD's stock is still groundless. Since a company would always follow closely the changing and trend of markets, they may presumably stop their producing of its origin products in the next seasons or increase their products of low-fat foods thus to meet the demands of the majority. Therefore, there is no need for OD’s stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.

In sum, the causal relationship between the citizens' desiring of choosing food and the stock of OD can sometimes be quite subtle and even misleading. （这个argu的结论不是因果关系，而是买股票啊）However,（前后也没有看出转折关系） for the reasons mentioned above, more careful considerations are necessary before a reasonable guideline could be made about the future purchase stock in this company. After all, a wrong investigation which would lead OD to the other way around making profits would be worse than no changes at all.（最后这句什么意思？）

hwslqcUID: 2861597

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 472          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-8-12 16:21:04

The notion that Old Dairy (OD) should sell their shares and other investors should not purchase stock in OD seems to be sound and convincing. After all, the recent survey indicated people's dislike of fats and cholesterol while many of the food products marketed by OD industries are high in fat and cholesterol. However, close scrutiny of these evidences reveals that none of them can lend to credible support to the conclusion. The reasons are stated as below.

First of all, even we assume the recent survey is convincing, the substance of the survey cannot lead to the conclusion that most people will not buy the food with fat and cholesterol marked by OD. As we know nothing about the total number of the respondents, it is possible that only few people desire to reduce in such way. The arguer does not tell the present amount of food containing fats and cholesterol and how much the respondents want to reduce either, so it is also possible even the respondents reduce these foods a little, the total need in this market is still large. Unless the arguer can provide more convincing evidence to ruling out all the possibilities I mentioned above, the conclusion will be undermined.

The fact that low-fat products abound in many food stores cannot guarantee the decrease of OD's sells and profits. It is highly possible that the low-fat food is abundant in these shops for a long time while few people buy them, as the arguer cited no information about the sales and appearance of these products. Furthermore, we all know that people choose their food based on many factors. Chances are that the food made by OD is so tasty and cheap that even it containing fats and cholesterol, people will still buy OD's products. The arguer cannot draw the conclusion that the OD's sales and profits will decrease from this fact.

Even the mid conclusion that people will buy less OD's product since it containing fats and cholesterol is true, the final conclusion that OD stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not buy OD's stock is still groundless. Every company would always face the change of the market and they all have their methods to tackle with that. Maybe OD will choose to change the style of its food, decrease the price of its food or provide account to the consumers to attract consumers again. It would weak the conclusion if the arguer cannot provide more evidence to eliminate all the possibilities like I mentioned.

After pointing out so many flaws in this argument, now we can say the evidences cited by the arguer cannot be relied on by the conclusion. Maybe the recommendation made by the arguer is reasonable. The arguer should provide more practical and professional evidences. For instance, he can cite the people's opinion about OD's product, the sales of OD's products or the OD's management plan and market plan.
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改：
In the newsletter, the author suggests that Old Dairy (OD) stockholders sell their shares and other investors do  not purchase stock in OD. To substantiate his recommendation, the author cites a survey showing that 80% of the respondents have the desires to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. In addition, the author points out the products by OD are high in fat and cholesteral and predict OD's sales and profits would surly decline. However, the argument suffers from several logical mistakes which render them unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the author offers little information about the survey that the survey is statistically reliable. Specifically, the author must show the percentage of the people who participate in the survey. The lower the percentage is, the less reliable the survey result is. Also, the author must show those respondents are representative of the general population. Unless the author presents additional information, the survey's result is dubious at best.

Moreover, even if the survey is reliable, and a large proportion of the population would prefer a low level of fats and cholesterol in their food, the author unfairly assumes that those customers would actually stop consuming OD foods and purchase those low-fats products. Perhaps they cannot resist the tempatation of the flavor of the OD products and still consume them as before. Perhaps the low-fats products available in the markets are considerably high thus many people continue to purchase OD products【没明白这句话你想表达的意思。因为LF很多，所以人们还是买OD，这不太理解。。。】. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude the sales of OD would diminish.

Finally yet importantly, granted that the sales of OD products will diminish, the author's claim that the profits of OD will also decrease is unwarranted. Common sense and experience has informed me that profitability is a function of revenue and expense. It is entirely possible that the prices of OD products go up which might beget a increasing profit despite the declining sales. It is also quite possible that the expense OD spends in producing their products decrease due to the advanced producing procedures OD adopts. Without providing further information about the price and expense of OD products, the author could not conclude a declining profit of OD.

To sum up, the author's suggestion is unpersuasive. To strengthen this argument, the author must provides additional information to ensure the reliability of the survey. In addition, the author should also provides more evidence to show both the sales and profits of OD would decline

【攻击点抓到不太好，这个argu错误不少没必要专门提出survey的可靠性，反而对有很多low-fat在商店这句话视而不见。而且无视了股票市场和利益之间的关系去着重说profit和sales之间的关系。可以在斟酌一下。】

sharonyeUID: 2862009

题目：ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
字数：531
用时：00:40:00
日期：2010-8-12
下午 08:39:01

In this argument, the author advise Old Dairy Stokeholders to sell their shares and other investors not to invest in this king of companys. His suggestion may be a little reasonable at first glance, for a survey provided by him shows that over 80 percent respondents indicated they would like food low in fat and cholesterol, ocassionally, this Old Dairy industries are always making products high in fat while low-fat food are around in many food stores in today's world. However, a careful look will reveal how groundless his/her conclusion is.
In the first place, I would like to doubt the representability of the survey. Obviously, there is no information about the characteristic of the sample, if the survey is only available to people who are suffering from overwheight, they are common to hate fat food. Or it is also high possible only people who prefer low-fat products are more likely respond to the survey for they want to attract more food low in fat in market foe they to choose. Also, if the question is leading, the respondents will no doubt give the expected answer which may be they want reduce intaking of fats and cholesterol. All these posibilities above have thrown so many doubts on the results of the survey, and make me have great reason not to accept the conclusion in the argument.
Second, granted a lot of people are fond of low-fat food, it can not be the only factor for costomers to choose food. Taste, quality, nutrition are all playing important roles for well selling. At the same time, fame is also a factor people may take into account when buying
food. Old Dairy company has a relatively long history and enjoy good fame among consumers, people believe
in the quality of the products providing by the company, or people may just like the unique taste of
food producing by it. In this way, Old Dairy company will not lose it's profits.
Supremely, an old company always stable and it is safe for
people to investe . At the same time, when stokeholders of the company see the potential market of low-fat food, it can also make some change of it's products. After all, the researchers of the company is often experienced and have ability to create better products, or if necessary, the company can also employ some other researchers to do some help in this kind of research.
To sum up, the advice of the arguer is not persuasive as it stands. Before I can accept the conclusion, he/she must provide more evidence to ensure the representability of the cited survey. To better evaluate the argument, he/she would better rule out the posibilities that the company is able to pruduce new low-fat food. In addition, low-fat is the only factor, at least the most important factor directing people to buy their food is also need to be proved.

sharonyeUID: 2862009

The notion that Old Dairy (OD) should sell their shares and other investors should not purchase stock in OD seems to be sound and convincing. After all, the recent survey indicated people's dislike of fats and cholesterol while many of the food products marketed by OD industries are high in fat and cholesterol. However, close scrutiny of these evidences reveals that none of them can lend to credible support to the conclusion. The reasons are stated as below.

First of all, even we assume the recent survey is convincing（我觉得下面写的是结果不可靠呀）, the substance of the survey cannot lead to the conclusion that most people will not buy the food with fat and cholesterol marked by OD. As we know nothing about the total number of the respondents, it is possible that only few people desire to reduce in such way. The arguer does not tell the present amount of food containing fats and cholesterol and how much（说的是程度么？） the respondents want to reduce either, so it is also possible even the respondents reduce these foods a little, the total need in this market is still large. Unless the arguer can provide more convincing evidence to ruling out all the possibilities I mentioned above, the conclusion will be undermined.

The fact that low-fat products abound in many food stores cannot guarantee the decrease of OD's sells and profits. It is highly possible that the low-fat food is abundant in these shops for a long time while（but） few people buy them, as the arguer cited no information about the sales and appearance of these products. Furthermore, we all know that people choose their food based on many factors. Chances are that the food made by OD is so tasty and cheap that even it containing fats and cholesterol, people will still buy OD's products. The arguer cannot draw the conclusion that the OD's sales and profits will decrease from this fact.

Even the mid conclusion that people will buy less OD's product since it containing fats and cholesterol is true, the final conclusion that OD stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not buy OD's stock is still groundless. （这种方式表达，学习啦）Every company would always face the change of the market and they all have their methods to tackle with that. Maybe OD will choose to change the style of its food, decrease the price of its food or provide account to the consumers to attract consumers again. It would weak the conclusion if the arguer cannot provide more evidence to eliminate all the possibilities like I mentioned.

After pointing out so many flaws in this argument, now we can say the evidences cited by the arguer cannot be relied on by the conclusion（这句话有点问题）. Maybe the recommendation made by the arguer is reasonable. The arguer should provide more practical and professional evidences. For instance, he can cite the people's opinion about OD's product, the sales of OD's products or the OD's management plan and market plan.
问题越来越少，作文越来越不好改了

finalleUID: 2812504

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 502          TIME: 00:25:00          DATE: 2010/8/12 23:00:02
      In this argument, the arguer advocates that stockholders of Old Dairy should sell their shares and other investors should not purchase stock in this company because their sales and profits will decrease greatly. Although this argument might seem reasonable at first glance, it is in fact ill-conceived. The reasons are stated as follows.
      Firstly, the result of the survey, upon which the suggestion rests, is too vague to be information. The arguer fails to tell us some crucial information, for example, where was the survey conducted? Who were investigated in this survey? What demographic characters did they have? If this survey was conducted in the nationwide or other areas rather than where Old Dairy Industries locate, this survey result cannot demonstrate the attitudes of local people, who are current consumers of Old Dairy, and therefore lose validity to support the argument. Given that this survey result was conducted in local area, yet another important factor should be considered is that whether the respondents are sampled randomly and whether their opinion is representative for that of consumers of Old Dairy as a whole. Perhaps, most of respondents are the old, who cannot take in much fat and cholesterol in concerning of health, or are young women, who will consume fewer fats to keep good shape. In such cases, of course, they would incline to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol.
     Secondly, the arguer fails to convince us that Old Dairy's sales as well as profits will diminish largely. Only pointing out that many food products market by Old Dairy at present are high in fats and cholesterol, the arguer ignores to mention the other food products which may be low-fat products produced by Old Dairy without being marketed. It is possible that since the food products with high fats and cholesterol are not welcomed in market as those low-fat products, so the company mainly focus no marketing them, whereas low-fat products do not need at all. It is also cannot exclude the possibility that food products with high fats and cholesterol merely make up a small fraction of Old Dairy's entirely food products, thence, the sales of the food products with high fats and cholesterol cannot have great impact on that of entirely food products produced by Old Dairy. In addition, profits will not reduce unless when other conditions are kept unchanged and the sales decrease. It is impossible for Old Dairy to take no actions when they witness company's sales declining. Reducing the cost relating to production and resources, augment the price of products, such kinds of methods may conduce to keep profits from decreasing.
In summary, the argument is not convincing since the evidence provided lacks credibility, therefore cannot lend strong support to the conclusion the arguer maintains. To better evaluate the argument, we need more substantial statistical data concerning the survey, and furthermore, a thorough understanding of the sales of the entire food products of Old Dairy, not only that of containing fats and cholesterol is indispensable.

谦行天下UID: 2797557

Based on groundless evidence, the author asserts that Old Dairy industry's profit will decline and then he suggests that its stockholders should sell their shares and other investors shouldn't buy stock in this company. The aurgument seems soundness in the first glance; however, the second examination reveals that it suffers from several logical flaws.

To begin with, the argument is based on a hasty generalization that Old Dairy would necessarily fail to market many of its food products that are high in fat and cholesterol.

Firstly, the author provides no information about how the survey was conducted, how much size the respondents is. Only on the condition that the size of respondents is large enough, the respondents were randomly chosen from the consumers of Old Dairy, the result of the survey is convincing. It is said that researchers must test a new drug on thousands of patients before launching the drug, to see whether it will have side-effect on patients, or whether it does help to relieve symptoms. Otherwise, the result of the survey can not lend a support to Old Dairy's customers tend to dislike its products.

Secondly, the author's assertion of other abundant low-fat products cannot substantiate that they have influenced the selling of Old Dairy's products. Maybe there are no other competitors aimed at the same potential customers as Old Dairy. Or Old Dairy has potent right in a special kind of food that it has unique clienteles. Perhaps, the brand of Old Dairy is highly accepted by citizens that people are fond in its products. Hence, the author's assertion that Old Dairy's sales are likely to diminish is open to doubt.

Moreover, the author fails to convince us that Old Dairy's overall sales and profits would necessarily decline in the future. Even though their profits are decreasing, the author hasn't given any information about changing plans in Old Dairy. Facing in financial plight, the CEOs should have new plans to react to the need of market. If they reduce products that are in low profit and increases or develop new products that would highly fond by consumers. As the old saying goes, running water never stale. If changing to new plans becomes successful, the profit may roar up.

All in all, to substantiate the author's argument, the following things need to be done. 1) Information about the background of the survey needs to be presented; 2) the direct indicator that Old Dairy's sale and profit has fallen dawn needs to be provided; 3) the future financial situation of Old Dairy is hard to predict.

================第一次自改文=======================

谢谢6，我再想想

Based on groundless evidence, the author asserts that Old Dairy industry's profit will decline and then he suggests that its stockholders should sell their shares and other investors shouldn't buy stock in this company. The argument seems soundness in the first glance; however, the second examination reveals that it suffers from several logical flaws.

To begin with, the argument is based on a hasty generalization that Old Dairy would necessarily fail to market many of its food products that are high in fat and cholesterol.

Firstly, the author provides no information about how the survey was conducted, how much size the respondents is. Only on the condition that the size of respondents is large enough, the respondents were randomly chosen from the consumers of Old Dairy, the result of the survey is convincing. Likewise, researchers must test a new drug on thousands of patients before launching the drug, to see whether it will have side-effect on patients, or whether it does help to relieve symptoms. Otherwise, the result of the survey can not lend a support to Old Dairy's customers tend to dislike its products.
to,6你的观点有道理
Secondly, the author's assertion of other abundant low-fat products cannot substantiate that they have influenced the selling of Old Dairy's products. Maybe there are no other competitors aimed at the same potential customers as Old Dairy. Or Old Dairy has potent right in a special kind of food that it has unique clienteles. Perhaps, the brand of Old Dairy is highly accepted by citizens that people are fond in its products. Hence, the author's assertion that Old Dairy's sales are likely to diminish is open to doubt. 文中举例说说那些人确实需要补充高脂肪食物之类的可能更充分，我自己写的是那些运动员和脑力劳动者，仅供参考。

Moreover, the author fails to convince us that Old Dairy's overall sales and profits would necessarily decline in the future. Even though their profits are decreasing, the author hasn't given any information about changing plans in Old Dairy. Facing in financial plight, the CEOs should have new plans to react to the need of market. If they reduce products that are in low profit and increases or develop new products that would highly fond by consumers. As the old saying goes, running water never stale.（nice~） If changing to new plans becomes successful, the profit may roar up. （我觉得这个首席执行官是不是应该只有那么一个人呢，查了半天也没找到。）

All in all, to substantiate the author's argument, the following things need to be done. 1) Information about the background of the survey needs to be presented; 2) the direct indicator that Old Dairy's sale and profit has fallen dawn needs to be provided; 3) the future financial situation of Old Dairy is hard to predict.
让步也许呢，大家都让步的说！

谦行天下UID: 2797557

改5
不懂的

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 502          TIME: 00:25:00          DATE: 2010/8/12 23:00:02
      In this argument, the arguer advocates that stockholders of Old Dairy should sell their shares and other investors should not purchase stock in this company because their sales and profits will decrease greatly. Although this argument might seem reasonable at first glance, it is in fact ill-conceived. The reasons are stated as follows.
开头可以说说argument里作者的逻辑是如何，设立靶子，便于文中攻击（我看你的时间还很多嘛）
      Firstly, the result of the survey, upon which the suggestion rests, is too vague to be information.挺喜欢这句话地 The arguer fails to tell us some crucial information, for example, where was the survey conducted? Who were investigated in this survey? What demographic characters did they have? If this survey was conducted in the nationwide or other areas rather than where Old Dairy Industries locate, this survey result cannot demonstrate the attitudes of local people, who are current consumers of Old Dairy, and therefore lose validity to support the argument. Given that this survey result was conducted in local area, yet another important factor should be considered is that whether the respondents are sampled randomly and whether their opinion is representative for that of consumers of Old Dairy as a whole. Perhaps, most of respondents are the old, who cannot take in much fat and cholesterol in concerning of health, or are young women, who will consume fewer fats to keep good shape. In such cases, of course, they would incline to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol.
好棒呀！
     Secondly, the arguer fails to convince us that Old Dairy's sales as well as profits will diminish largely. Only pointing out that many food products market by Old Dairy at present are high in fats and cholesterol, the arguer ignores to mention the other food products which may be low-fat products produced by Old Dairy without being marketed. It is possible that since the food products with high fats and cholesterol are not welcomed in market as those low-fat products, so the company mainly focus no marketing them这个指代有点混乱, whereas low-fat products do not need at all. It is also cannot exclude the possibility that food products with high fats and cholesterol merely make up a small fraction 这里有点突兀，之前没有任何铺垫的of Old Dairy's entirely food products, thence【这个是从那时起的意思么？你这里似乎要表达的是因果关系】, the sales of the food products with high fats and cholesterol cannot have great impact on that of entirely food products produced by Old Dairy. In addition, profits will not reduce unless when other conditions are kept unchanged and the sales decrease加在这里很怪. It is impossible for Old Dairy to take no actions when they witness company's sales declining. Reducing the cost relating to production and resources, augment the price of products, such kinds of methods may conduce to keep profits from decreasing.

In summary, the argument is not convincing since the evidence provided lacks credibility, therefore cannot lend strong support to the conclusion the arguer maintains. To better evaluate the argument, we need more substantial statistical data concerning the survey, and furthermore, a thorough understanding of the sales of the entire food products of Old Dairy, not only that of containing fats and cholesterol is indispensable.

finalleUID: 2812504

In this argument, the author advise【s】 Old Dairy Stokeholders to sell their shares and other investors not to invest in this king of companys. His suggestion may be a little reasonable at first glance, for a survey provided by him shows that over 80 percent respondents indicated they would like food low in fat and cholesterol, occasionally, this Old Dairy industries are always making products high in fat while low-fat food are around in many food stores in today's world. However, a careful look will reveal how groundless his/her conclusion is. In the first place, I would like to doubt the representability of the survey. Obviously, there is no information about the characteristic of the sample, if the survey is only available to people who are suffering from overweight, they are common to hate fat food. Or it is also high possible only people who prefer low-fat products are more likely respond to the survey for they want to attract more food low in fat in market foe【for】 they to choose. Also, if the question is leading, the respondents will no doubt give the expected answer which may be they want reduce intaking of fats and cholesterol. All these possibilities above have thrown so many doubts on the results of the survey, and make me have great reason not to accept the conclusion in the argument. Second, granted a lot of people are fond of low-fat food, it can not be the only factor for customers to choose food. Taste, quality, nutrition are all playing important roles for well selling. At the same time, fame is also a factor people may take into account when 【they are】buying food. Old Dairy company has a relatively long history and enjoy good fame among consumers, people believe in the quality of the products providing by the company, or people may just like the unique taste of food producing by it. In this way, Old Dairy company will not lose it's profits. Supremely, an old company always stable and it is safe for people to invest 【这句话没说服力】. At the same time, when stokeholders of the company see the potential market of low-fat food, it can also make some change of it's products. After all, the researchers of the company is【are】 often【去掉】 experienced and have ability to create better products, or 【and】if necessary, the company can also employ some other researchers to do some help in this kind of research. To sum up, the advice of the arguer is not persuasive as it stands. Before I can accept the conclusion, he/she must provide more evidence to ensure the representability of the cited survey. To better evaluate the argument, he/she would better rule out the possibilities【前面复数后面单数，时态注意】 that the company is able to produce new low-fat food. In addition, low-fat is the only factor, at least the most important factor directing people to buy their food is also need to be proved 你有挺多的拼写错误，和句型的使用不得当，希望改正。

PsMaggieUID: 2861847

由于写的时候将题目最后一句话理解错了，导致整篇argu有点偏差，因此自己已经做了第一次修改了
TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 454          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010/8/12 23:43:24


The statement that Old Dairy(OD) stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company sees at first glance to be an obvious conclusion. After all, it was stated in the argument that a large numbers of the respondents said that they wanted to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. However, before the author can rightly make a prediction about the company's future, the following logical fallacies must be considered.

First see from the survey about the customs' desiring, all we know is that 80 percent of the respondents indicated that they didn't want to buy something containing fats and cholesterol. However, there is no statistics about how many people have given an answer in this research. There exists a big possibility that the sample is just small while the respondents are just a few of the whole consumers. The respondents may probably consist of those people in an old age who cares more about their health while the masses such as children, young people are used to have foods containing fats and cholesterol. Unless the arguer can provide more convincing evidence to ruling out all the possibilities I mentioned above, the conclusion will be undermined.

Secondly, the fact that low-fat products abound in many food stores cannot guarantee the decrease of OD's sells and profits. It is possible that citizens buy both low-fat foods and high in fat foods at the same time. There can’t be just one factor for consumers to choose foods. The tasty of one product, the pride of one product and the popularity of one product all play a vital role in people’s choosing behaviors. And OD’s products may probably meet these requirements. Thus in this case the speaker fails to conclude that OD’s sells and profits would get down.

The last but not the least, even the mid conclusion that people will buy less OD's product since it containing fats and cholesterol is true, the final conclusion that OD stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not buy OD's stock is still groundless. Since a company would always follow closely the changing and trend of markets, they may presumably stop their producing of its origin products in the next seasons or increase their products of low-fat foods thus to meet the demands of the majority. Therefore, there is no need for OD’s stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.

In sum, the causal relationship between the citizens' desiring of choosing food and the stock of OD can sometimes be quite subtle and even misleading. However, for the reasons mentioned above, more careful considerations are necessary before a reasonable guideline could be made about the future purchase stock in this company. After all, a wrong investigation which would lead OD to the other way around making profits would be worse than no changes at all.