Argument38 请大家随便拍，谢谢. 请留下链接，方便回拍

Archer1123UID: 206148

Argument
38The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
1.        研究报告的科学性和可信度，无证据表明EM感冒率真的低，
2.        研究报告无法证明吃鱼是降低EM感冒率的真正原因
3.        无证据表明WM出勤率低是由于感冒造成的，感冒可能只是借口
4.        即使吃鱼有效，服用ichthaid也不一定有效，也忽略了ichthaid的副作用

In the argument, the author claims that West Meria (WM) people should use Ichthaid to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. At the first glance, the argument seems plausible and reasonable, because the author quotes a study about East Weria（EM）to substantiate the conclusion, however, this statement is not persuasive as it seems and cannot be accepted under careful examination and scrutiny.

To begin with, the author’s deduction bases on a questionable study. The study only provides people in EM visited doctor for cold lower frequently in EM. How about the sampling quantity and survey procedure? There is no evidence demonstrates the cold rate in EM is really lower. Maybe people in EM used to buy some medicine in drugstore instead of visiting doctors. Maybe they just asked for a leave and rest in home without visiting doctors. Without the scientific and detailed survey, it is hard and even impossible for us to accept that people in EM have lower cold rate.

Furthermore, even though we concede people in EM have lower cold rate, the study fails to convince us that there is a causal relationship between high fish consumption and lower cold rate. We have good reasons to assume the real reason causing lower cold rate in EM is not high fish consumption. Perhaps EM people have a good habit -- like sporting to keep healthy. Perhaps the weather in EM is always fine and temperature is warm enough to prevent people from cold. The study does not rule out other factors resulting in lower cold rate, which make author’s conclusion weakened greatly.

In addition, the author only renders the colds are the reason most frequently given for absences in WE, which does indicate the cold is the true reason for absences. The possibility cannot be excluded that colds are the feigned reasons or excuses in that colds are better false pretenses accepted by teachers or bosses than others. Possibly, one person oversleeping will take colds as the explanation. If colds are not the root cause of absenteeism, the situation cannot change even if taking measure to reduce the cold rate in EM.

Last but not the least, even though we concede eating more fish will help prevent colds, it does not guarantee the Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, has the same effect as fish. There is no evidence show it is the fish oil that play role in preventing colds. The function of other parts of fish cannot be neglected, such as the fillet, the roe, the tail or soup. Any of them maybe the important part to preventing colds. Moreover, the author does not consider whether the Ichthaid has any side effect on some people, insomnia, allergy or inappetence and so on. If so, the Ichthaid cannot be recommended for all people as daily use.

To sum up, based on what has been discussed and analyzed above, it is obvious that the argument is invalid and misleading, and the conclusion reached in the argument is too presumptuous to be accepted. In order to make the conclusion more convincing, the author should find the root cause of absenteeism in WE, and provide further and scientific survey about the relationship between eating fish and lower cold rate.

maylUID: 2162549

Argument
38The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
1.        研究报告的科学性和可信度，无证据表明EM感冒率真的低，
2.        研究报告无法证明吃鱼是降低EM感冒率的真正原因
3.        无证据表明WM出勤率低是由于感冒造成的，感冒可能只是借口
4.        即使吃鱼有效，服用ichthaid也不一定有效，也忽略了ichthaid的副作用

In the argument, the author claims that West Meria (WM) people should use Ichthaid to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. At the first glance, the argument seems plausible and reasonable, because the author quotes a study about East Weria（EM）to substantiate the conclusion, however, this statement is not persuasive as it seems and cannot be accepted under careful examination and scrutiny.

To begin with, the author’s deduction bases on a questionable study. The study only provides people in EM visited doctor for cold lower frequently in EM. How about the sampling quantity and survey procedure? There is no evidence demonstrates the cold rate in EM is really lower. Maybe people in EM used to buy some medicine in drugstore instead of visiting doctors. Maybe they just asked for a leave and rest in home without visiting doctors. Without the scientific and detailed survey, it is hard and even impossible for us to accept that people in EM have lower cold rate. 分析了调查的代表性，列举他因挺好

Furthermore, even though we concede people in EM have lower cold rate, the study fails to convince us that there is a causal relationship between high fish consumption and lower cold rate. We have good reasons to assume the real reason causing lower cold rate in EM is not high fish consumption. Perhaps EM people have a good habit -- like sporting to keep healthy. Perhaps the weather in EM is always fine and temperature is warm temperature 是不是应说高低而不是冷暖 enough to prevent people from cold. The study does not rule out other factors resulting in lower cold rate, which make author’s conclusion weakened greatly.

In addition, the author only renders the colds are the reason most frequently given for absences in WE, which does indicate the cold is the true reason for absences. The possibility cannot be excluded that colds are the feigned reasons or excuses in that colds are better false pretenses accepted by teachers or bosses than others. Possibly, one person oversleeping will take colds as the explanation. If colds are not the root cause of absenteeism, the situation cannot change even if taking measure to reduce the cold rate in EM.

Last but not the least, even though we concede eating more fish will help prevent colds, it does not guarantee the Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, has the same effect as fish. There is no evidence show it is the fish oil that play role in preventing colds. The function of other parts of fish cannot be neglected, such as the fillet, the roe, the tail or soup. Any of them maybe the important part to preventing colds. Moreover, the author does not consider whether the Ichthaid has any side effect on some people, insomnia, allergy or in appetence and so on. If so, the Ichthaid cannot be recommended for all people as daily use.

To sum up, based on what has been discussed and analyzed above, it is obvious that the argument is invalid and misleading, and the conclusion reached in the argument is too presumptuous to be accepted. In order to make the conclusion more convincing, the author should find the root cause of absenteeism in WE, and provide further and scientific survey about the relationship between eating fish and lower cold rate.
逻辑清晰，论证充分,这种文章是我一生的梦想啊

Archer1123UID: 206148

warm temperature 犯了低级错误，呵呵，
mayl，你的评价也太高了吧，多指出我的不足吧