Argument15--求拍，（限时完成）

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

In this newsletter, the author recommends that Old Dairy (OD) stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not to purchase stock in OD. To justify this recommendation, the author points out that people want to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, according to a recent survey, and that low fat products are abound in many food stores. The author also points out that many food products currently marketed by OD are high in fat and cholesterol. Careful scrutiny of these evidences, however, reveals that this recommendation is unconvincing in several respects.

A threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. First, we are informed nothing with respects to the way the poll was conducted and how well the respondents represented the public opinions. Secondly, the author provides no evidence that the number of the respondents is statistically significant. Thirdly, it is highly possible that people inclined to caring their intake were more willing to repond to the survey than were other people. If this is the case, the over 80 percent respondse rate is not persuasive.

Even assuming the result of survey is reliable, the author's reasoning that OD's will no doubt decrease is unjustifiable. First, people's concerns about their intake of foods and their eating of these foods is two things. Next, although the author points out that low fat products abound in many food stores, it is possible that a majority of popular foods remain the kind of OD's products. Thus, without ruling out this possibility, the author cannot conclude that the profits of OD will no doubt decrease.

Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to another flaw appearing in this argument: the author draws a hasty conclusion, merely based on these facts cited in the argument, that OD stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not to purchase stock in OD. Perhaps, the sales of foods containing fats and cholesterol are not the major sources of OD's revenues. For that matter, after perceiving this trends, perhaps OD would take effective measures to change their products in the near future in order to gain a greater profits. In short, absent additional information concerning these scenarios, I find the author's recommendation is unconvincing.

To sum up, tha author fails to provide key evidence needed to support the recommendation. To bolster that suggestion the author must show that the survey is statistically reliable, To better assess the suggestion the author must also show that the foods containing fats and cholesterol are to a great extent lose their market. Also useful would be any information concerning whether OD has other major sources of profits and whether OD will take measures to deal with the trend.