求拍-argument 79

xiao-hu-tu-shenUID: 2681670

The author concludes that the effective ways to reduce the accident rate of trucking companies is to raise their driver's pay and limit the overall number of hours they drive. To support the conclusion, the author points out that by using these means, the Longhaul trucking company saw a decline in its annual accident rate. In addition, he cites a survey of other trucking companies to support the argument. However these alone do not constitute a logical argument in favor of its conclusion and fail to provide convincing support making this argument sound and invulnerable.


Firstly, the author fails to distinguish the two different terms, annual accident rate and the number of accidents involved. Just as the author has pointed out that the annual accident rate can be defined as the number of accidents per mile driven, the decline of the number of accidents involved per year does not necessarily mean the fall of the annual accident rate. It is possible that the total miles driven of the Longhal trucking company decline even more sharply than the decline of its number of accidents involved, its annual accident rate may actually fall.


Secondly, the author fails to establish the casual relationship between the pay rise and strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive and the decline of its annual accident rate. It is highly possible that other factors lead to the decline of the annual accident rate, the improvement of road facilities, the train of its drivers and so forth. Without ruling out such possibilities, it is not convincing to conclude that it is the methods mentioned in the argument that cause the decline of the Longhaul trucking company's accident rate.


Finally, the survey of other trucking companies is also not convincing enough to me. Unless the surveyor sampled a sufficient number of these companies and did so randomly across the entire spectrum, the survey results are not reliable to gauge the effectiveness of salaries rise on decline of annual accident rate generally. Additionally if the survey is conducted a relatively long time ago, its results may not be fit for the condition of now.   


In sum, without a careful logic consideration and based on a unwarranted survey, the arguer results in an over evaluation and false generation about the effectiveness of raising salaries and limiting the overall numbers of hours the drivers drive in reducing annual accident rate. Before a convincing conclusion is made, a more careful thinking about the key factors that leads to the decline of the accident rate is needed and we must base our conclusion with more warranted research.