Argument 45 求拍，有拍必回~ 谢啦

cyw2008UID: 2620058

Argument 45"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

      The conclusion in the above editorial rests upon certain assumptions that the decreasing population of the Arctic deer; the causal relationship between the recent global warming trends and this phenomena, which prevents the deer to migrate across the frozen area. Even though these assumptions seem to be reasonable, they are logically flawed in several ways, thus making the argument unpersuasive as it stands.
      A threshold assumption upon which the editorial lies is that the number of deer population is declining. However, the editorial author fails to substantiate this crucial assumption. The only evidence is provided by local hunters' reports without any statistical support and thorough research on the demographical change of deer population. Considering that deer will try every means to avoid the killing of hunters, hunters' reports are highly suspicious. It is very likely that the population of dear remains at the same level or they migrate to areas that are hidden from local hunters, thus resulting in hunters' reports on reduction in the number of deer population.
       Even assuming the deer population is decreasing, there is no compelling evidence to support the causal connection between melting ice and the decrease in deer population. The editorial presumes that the decreasing number of deer necessarily results from that deer are unable to follow their long migration tradition. First of all, no evidence has been provided to substantiate that they can not follow their migration pattern across the frozen area. Secondly, they may be other factors that can have caused the reduction. For instance, perhaps the deer population is decreasing because of excessive hunting, epidemics breaking out among the deer, or even the increase of their biological enemies. Without ruling out other possible factors that may affect the decrease in the deer population, the editorial can not draw a firm conclusion that the deer population is the result of global warming trends simply because they occur at the same time.
        In conclusion, to make the editorial convincing, the editorial must supply clear evidence that the reduction of the deer population really exists and the causal relations between this decrease and global warming trends should also be substantiated. Evidence that other factors may affect the decrease should also be provided.